• Title, Summary, Keyword: Economic Ex-Post Impact Assessment

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An analysis of ex-post assessment on Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement with respect to the agricultural sector

  • Han, Suk-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.468-480
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    • 2016
  • As the existing FTAs' implementations are being accelerated, ex-post assessments, such as tariff schedules and agricultural trade analyses results, have been emerging as important national issues for the agricultural sector. Korea-Chile FTA is the first FTA in Korea, and more than ten years have passed since April 2004. It will be necessary to measure the impacts of the agreement on the domestic agricultural industry by analyzing concessions made on traded items of farm products on prices, agricultural trade, and so on. The purpose of this study is to prepare for the request for ex-post assessments on the agricultural sector by trade negotiation procedural law. Additionally, by providing policy direction for agricultural policy segments requiring amendments and supplements through an ex-post assessment, we can more objectively evaluate the conflicting arguments between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Current evaluation methods about ex-post impact assessment of FTA are generally comparison analysis on the change of trade balance before and after FTA implementation. However, this simple comparison analysis cannot be said to pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA because of all combined situations such as effects of exchange rates, international macroeconomic changes, climate change, and the occurrence of pests. This research attempts to use dynamic analysis as its ex-post assessment methodology and is expected to contribute to future policy evaluation.

An Analysis of Ex-post Evaluation on Korea-EU FTA with respect to the Agricultural Sector (한·EU FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가)

  • Han, Suk-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.648-655
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    • 2016
  • As the FTAs' implementations are accelerated, an Ex-post assessment, such as an analysis of the tariff schedule and agricultural trade has been emerging as an important national issue for an agricultural sector Korea-EU FTA, which was to be implemented in the five years from July 2016 as one of the giant FTA. The purpose of this study was to determine the demand of an ex-post assessment on agricultural sector as a trade negotiation procedural law. In addition, by providing policy direction for the agricultural policy part requiring amendments and supplements through ex-post assessment, the conflicting arguments between agricultural and non-agricultural sector can be evaluated more objectively. The current evaluation method on the economic impact ex-post assessment of a FTA is generally compared using the change in trade balance before and after the time of FTA implementation. On the other hand, this comparison cannot be said to be the pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA in all combined situations, such as the effects of exchange rates and international macroeconomic changes and climate change & occurrence of pests. Over the last 4 years, however, Korea-EU FTA's total accumulated agricultural GDP loss was measured to be 2,178 billion by these research attempts with dynamic analysis as ex-post assessment methodology. The greatest impact was mainly livestock and pork followed by cereals and vegetables. In addition, this research is expected to contribute to policy evaluations in the future.

Assessment & Implication on Ex-post Free Trade Agreements with respect to the Korean Agricultural Sector (기 체결 FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가와 시사점)

  • Han, Suk-Ho;Lee, Suhwan;Youm, Jung-Won;Ji, Seong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.377-385
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the impact of the implementation of 14 FTAs on the domestic agricultural sector through aneconomic post-impact assessment using the dynamic analysis method. As a result of the implementation of the FTAs, agricultural production decreased significantly, mainly in the livestock and fruit sectors. Most of the previous studieswere limited to the post-impact assessment of individual FTAs, which does not reflect the fact that the implementation of a number of FTAs results ina combinationof trade creation, trade transitions, and FTA accumulation effects. Therefore, this study provides amore objective and comprehensive evaluation of the effects of FTAs in the agricultural sector, and contributes to some extent to the evaluation of the policy directions necessary for revising and supplementing the domestic measures needed to supplement the FTAs. Of course, a more sophisticated analysis is needed to separate the impact of these complementary domestic measures and the performance of the general agricultural project.

An Ex-post Impact Assessment of the KOR-USA Free Trade Agreement on the Korean Citrus Industry (한·미 FTA 체결 이후 감귤산업 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Bae-Sung;Kim, Man-Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.538-545
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    • 2020
  • This study measured the economic impact (from 2012 through the end of 2017) of the KOR-USA FTA (Free Trade Agreement) on the Korean citrus industry according to importing orange from the USA after the implementation of the KOR-USA FTA. Citrus fruits were divided into field citrus grown in open fields, house citrus grown in green houses, and late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus) based on the cultivation methods and the varieties of citrus. We specified the structural and dynamic recursive demand-supply equilibrium models of three citrus fruits to analyze policy simulations. The results showed that for field citrus, due to the impact of some amounts of TRQ, the annual average of the real gross revenue dropped by 2.39 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. As for house citrus, due to the impact of oranges and cherries, the annual average of the real gross revenue declined by 3.01 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017, and for late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus), the annual average of the real gross revenue fell by 15.11 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. This paper also suggests several policy implications.