• Title, Summary, Keyword: 19대 대선

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Analysis of the Influence of Presidential Candidate's SNS Reputation on Election Result: focusing on 19th Presidential Election (대선후보의 SNS 평판이 선거결과에 미치는 영향 분석 - 19대 대선을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Ye Na;Choi, Eun Jung;Kim, Myuhng Joo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.195-201
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    • 2018
  • Smartphones and PCs have become essential components of our daily life. People are expressing their opinions freely in SNS by using these devices. We are able to predict public opinions on specific subject by analyzing the related big data in SNS. In this paper, we have collected opinion data in SNS and analyzed reputation by text mining in order to make a prediction for the will of the people before 19th presidential election in South Korea. The result shows that our method makes more accurate estimate than other election polls.

축단협활동 - 범축산업계 대선공약 요구안

  • 한국낙농육우협회
    • 월간낙농육우
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    • v.32 no.10
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    • pp.84-97
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    • 2012
  • 제19대 대통령선거 시기를 맞이하여 우리협회가 주도하는 축산관련단체협의회는 전국축협운영협의회, 한국축산분야학회협의회와 공동으로 범축산업계 대선공약 요구안을 마련하였다. 요구안은 국내 축산업의 가치와 입지가 좁아지고 있는 대내외적 여건을 설명하면서 식량자주율 확대지원, 농가 소득안전망 확충, 동반성장을 위한 제도 마련이라는 3대 축산정책 비전과 이에 해당하는 15개의 핵심과제들을 제시하며 국내 축산업의 회생을 위한 정책 실천을 건의하고 있다. 회원농가의 많은 관심을 바라며 이를 짊어질 수 있는 후보선택에 있어 올바른 안목을 갖추기를 기대한다.

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Differentiation among Conservative Voters, 2012-2017: Is the Uneven Playground Tilted to the Other Side (2012-2017년 보수 유권자의 분화: 과연 운동장은 (거꾸로) 기울었는가?)

  • Jang, Seung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.29-54
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    • 2018
  • Focusing on vastly different results between two presidential elections in 2012 and 2017, this paper examines how political attitudes of conservative voters had changed in 5 years and how these changes had brought about differences in their vote choices in 2017. Using panel data encompassing two presidential elections, this paper finds that, though ideological and affective evaluation of conservative parties and candidates had indeed deteriorated among supporters of Park Geun-Hye in 2012, it is candidate factors rather partisan ones that exerted much more significant influence on their vote choices in 2017. In addition it is found that the differentiation in political and economic policy preferences among conservative voters had only slight influence on their voted choices in 2017. This paper concludes with discussing how to understand the result of the $19^{th}$ presidential elections and what implications it has in prospecting the party realignment in Korean electoral politics.

A Study on National Security Policy Platforms by South Korea's Ruling Parties During General and Presidential Elections (17대·18대 대선과 18대·19대·20대 총선에 나타난 새누리당의 외교안보통일 공약 분석 : 북핵, 남북관계 그리고 한미동맹 공약을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jong Kun
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.53-75
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    • 2016
  • This article presents a descriptive analysis on national security policy platforms promoted by the ruling parties of South Korea during general and presidential elections. National security platforms made during the elections campaigns are a window that allows us to see how the ruling party perceives the threat environment, opportunity-structures, policy preferences and material capabilities faced by the state. South Korea presents a unique case since it faces constant military threats from North Korea and interacts with China and the United States. Therefore, the national security policy platforms, which are explicitly campaigned during the general and presidential elections, showcases the worldview of the ruling party. The study essentially focuses on three areas of the platforms - its threat perception on North Korea, the ROK-US alliance and the future vision for the Korean peninsula by covering two presidential elections and three general elections for the last 20 years.

과학기술정책 형성 과정에서의 여론 반영 - 19대 대선 과학기술 공약과 동아사이언스 및 ESC의 사례를 중심으로

  • Han, Won-Seok;NamGung, Hye-Ri;Gang, Seon-Jun;Won, Yu-Hyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • pp.473-487
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    • 2017
  • 본 논문은 대한민국의 제19대 대통령 선거와 관련하여 각 후보들의 과학기술정책 공약이 과학자들의 여론을 반영하였는지 알아본다. 이를 위해서, 주요 정당(더불어민주당, 국민의당, 바른정당, 정의당)의 후보들이 과학 언론인 동아사이언스로부터 받은 과학기술정책 공약에 대한 문의에 대해 답변한 내용과 사단법인 과학자 단체인 '변화를 꿈꾸는 과학기술인 네트워크(ESC)'가 발간한 '2017 대선 과학기술지원정책 타운미팅 - 우리는 대통령 후보에게 무엇을 묻고 요구할 것인가'라는 자료집에 대해 답변한 내용을 중심으로 하였다. ESC의 해당 자료집은 ESC 소속 회원들이 주관한 타운미팅에서 참가자들이 소속 및 직위에 의한 제한 없이 반대 의견에 부딪히지 않고 자유롭게 의견을 개진함으로써 발간된 것이기 때문에, 과학기술계의 여론을 가감 없이 반영했다고 볼 수 있다. 분석을 해본 결과, 국민의당 안철수 후보의 과학기술정책 공약이 과학기술계 여론을 가장 많이 반영하였으나, 과학기술 일자리 확충 및 과학기술인재 등용과 관련해서는 더불어민주당 문재인 대통령이, 과학문화 정책과 관련해서는 바른정당 유승민 후보 및 정의당 심상정 후보가 과학기술계 여론을 잘 반영한 것으로 나타났기에, 문재인 대통령이 세부 정책별로 다른 후보의 공약을 참고할 필요가 있는 것으로 파악되었다.

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Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

Voting Behavior for the 19th President Elections and Audience Analysis for Political Campaigns & Political Advertising: Focused on In-depth Interview (제 19대 대통령 선거의 유권자 투표행태와 정치캠페인 및 정치광고에 대한 수용자 분석: 심층인터뷰를 중심으로)

  • Cha, Young-Ran
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.385-398
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to explore implications by analyzing voters' behaviors and attitudes of political campaigns & political advertising audience in the 19th presidential election. For this purpose, in-depth interviews with 59 voters who voted in the last election were conducted, and interviewees were allocated by their gender and age. As a result, the motivation to ballot for a candidate was based on the candidates' political affiliations to a party, political inclinations, and election pledges. Voters also determined whom they would vote for after watching the final TV debate. The biggest issue of this election was to create jobs in the public sector, an economical issue. TV was the most trusted medium among the voters, and TV debates had the greatest influence in changing the minds of the voters. Voters thought that Shim, Sang Jung was the best on TV debates and that An, Chul Soo was the worst. Also, voters recalled An, Chul Soo the most among all election posters, but they recalled Moon, Jae In the most out of other political advertisement methods. Therefore, the results elucidated the voters' behaviors and the audience's attitudes in political advertising, and this study provided theoretical and practical implications to be utilized in future presidential election campaigns and political advertising endeavors.

Causal study on the effect of survey methods in the 19th presidential election telephone survey (19대 대선 전화조사에서 조사방법 효과에 대한 인과연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Jung, Hyojae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.943-955
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    • 2017
  • We investigate and estimate the causal effect of the survey methods in telephone surveys for the 19th presidential election. For this causal study, we draw a causal graph that represents the causal relationship between variables. Then we decide which variables should be included in the model and which variables should not be. We explain why the research agency is a should-be variable and the response rate is a shouldnot-be variable. The effect of ARS can not be estimated due to data limitations. We have found that there is no significant difference in the effect of the proportion of cell phone survey if it is less than about 90 percent. But the support rate for Moon Jae-in gets higher if the survey is performed only by cell phones.

2008년도 낙농육우산업 발전을 위한 설문조사

  • Korea Dairy and Beef Farmers Association
    • 월간낙농육우
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2008
  • 2008년 낙농육우산업 발전을 위해 최우선적으로 해결해야 할 낙농현안은 "낙농제도개선을 통한 전국단위 우유수급 안정'과 '낙농정책에 대한 비전수립'인 것으로 조사됐다. 협회가 지난해 말 실시한 낙농가들을 대상으로 실시한 '2008 낙농산업 발전을 위한 설문조사' 결과에 따르면, 낙농가들이 가장 시급한 해결과제로 꼽은 것은 '낙농제도개선을 통한 전국단위 우유수급 안정'(19%)이었으며 '낙농정책에 대한 비전수립'과 '제도적인 우유소비 확대방안의 마련', '무허가 축사의 양성화 방안 마련'도 각각 17%, 14%, 11%로 나타나, 안정적인 낙농산업 기반확보에 대한 낙농가들의 바램이 높은 것으로 조사됐다. 이번 설문조사는 협회가 중장기 낙농산업발전을 위한 세부적인 활동방향 모색을 위해 농가현장의 여론을 수렴코자 지난해 11월 27일부터 12월 11일까지 실시한 전국순회 낙농육우인 대토론회 기간 동안 강습회 참석자들을 대상으로 이뤄졌으며 설문조사에 참여한 응답자는 총 455명이다. 설문조사 내용은 낙농산업 발전방안, 낙농환경문제개선, 낙농자조금사업, 월간 "낙농육우" 및 협회 홈페이지 등에 대한 농가들의 의견 등이다. 협회는 이번 설문조사 결과를 향후 협회활동에 참고할 계획이다. 한편, 협회는 지난해 한미 FTA협상 타결, 한EU FTA 협상 등 대외적 문제와 전국단위 낙농제도개편, 낙농환경대책 등 국내 현안에 대한 실질적인 대응책 마련에 고심하며 한EU FTA 연구용역, 낙농기초조사 연구용역을 실시하고 있다. 또한 국정감사 요청사항으로 낙농육우 10대 과제를 제시하였고, 아울러 낙농육우 5대 핵심사항을 선정하여 지난 대선 공약사항으로 채택될 수 있도록 지속적인 활동을 전개한 바 있다. 이와 더불어 전국 9개 도시에서의 전국 순회 낙농육우 10대 과제를 제시하였고, 아울러 낙농육우인 대토론회 개최를 통해 사료값 인상에 따른 원유가 인상 검토, 전국단위 제도 개편 조속 해결, 무허가축사 양성화 조치에 대한 대선후보 농정공약 채택활동 중점 전개, 학교우유 급식 확대를 위한 실질적인 대책 마련 등 다양한 정책 건의를 수렴한 바 있다.

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