• Title, Summary, Keyword: 포아송 회귀분석

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The Reanalysis of the Donation Data Using the Zero-Inflated Possion Regression (0이 팽창된 포아송 회귀모형을 이용한 기부회수 자료의 재분석)

  • Kim, In-Young;Park, Tae-Kyu;Kim, Byung-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.819-827
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    • 2009
  • Kim et al. (2006) analyzed the donation data surveyed by Voluneteer 21 in year 2002 at South Korea using a Poisson regression based on the mixture of two Poissons and detected significant variables for affecting the number of donations. However, noting the large deviation between the predicted and the actual frequencies of zero, we developed in this note a Poisson regression model based on a distribution in which zero inflated Poisson was added to the mixture of two Poissons. Thus the population distribution is now a mixture of three Poissons in which one component is concentrated on zero mass. We used the EM algorithm for estimating the regression parameters and detected the same variables with Kim et al's for significantly affecting the response. However, we could estimate the proportion of the fixed zero group to be 0.201, which was the characteristic of this model. We also noted that among two significant variables, the income and the volunteer experience(yes, no), the second variable could be utilized as a strategric variable for promoting the donation.

포아송 반응을 갖는 로그 선형 회귀 모형에 대한 최우추정량과 모의실험 연구

  • 한정혜;조중재
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 1995
  • 본 논문에서는 포아송 반응을 갖는 로그 선형 회귀 모형에 붙스트랩 방법을 이용하여, 여러가지 통계적 추론을 위한 유용한 확률적 결과들을 연구.소개하고, 모의실험을 통한 소표본 성질들을 다양하게 제시하고자 한다. 특히 로그 선형 회귀 모형에 대한 최우 추정량 $\hat{\beta_n}$ 및 정보행렬 I(${\beta}_0$)의 추정량들 $I_1(\hat{\beta_n}{\cdot}X)$$I_2(\hat{\beta_n}{\cdot}X)$에 대한 일치성 및 정규성등의 확률적 성질들, 그리고 붙스트랩 방법을 적용한 대표본 성질들과 관련하여 여러가지 모의실험 결과들을 분석.연구하였다.

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Rear-end Accident Models of Rural Area Signalized Intersections in the Cases of Cheongju and Cheongwon (청주.청원 지방부 신호교차로의 후미추돌 사고모형)

  • Park, Byoung-Ho;In, Byung-Chul
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2009
  • This study deals with the rear-end collisions in the rural aiea. The objectives of this study are 1) to analyze the characteristics of rear-end accidents of signalized intersections, and 2) to develop the accident models for Cheongju-Cheongwon. In pursing the above, this study gives the particular attentions to comparing the characters of urban and rural area. In this study, the dependent variables are the number of accidents and value of EPDO(equivalent property damage only), and independent variables are the traffic volumes and geometric elements. The main results analyzed are the followings. First, the statistical analyses show that the Poisson accident model using the number of accident as a dependant variable are statistically significant and the negative binomial accident model using the value of EPDO are statistically significant. Second, the independent variables of Poisson model are analyzed to be the ratio of high-occupancy vehicles, total traffic volume and the sum of exit/entry, and those of negative binomial regression are the main road width, total traffic volume and the ratio of high-occupancy vehicles. Finally, the specific independent variables to the rural area are the main road width, the ratio of high occupancy vehicle, and the sum exit/entry.

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Analysis of K-league data using bivariate Poisson and diagonal inflated model (이변량 영과잉 포아송 및 대각확대 모형을 이용한 K-리그 골 득점 자료 분석)

  • Heo, Yun Seo;Kim, Kyoung Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.1643-1653
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    • 2018
  • There has been a steady research for analyzing number of goals of soccer game (Seong and Chang, 2007; Lee, 2012). In this study, eight regression models including the bivariate zero inflated Poisson regression model were fitted to K-league data for 2015-2018. The response variable is the number of total goals or the second half goals for home and away teams. Explanatory variables are the number of goals for the first half and the first half ball possession rate of each team. We chose bivariate Poisson regression model and the diagonal inflated regression model with Poisson tie probability distribution following several model selection criteria such as log likelihood, AIC and BIC. We found that the first half goals of home teams have a higher influence on total goals of home teams than the first half ball possession rate, but vice versa for away teams.

반복측정된 포아송 자료의 GEE 분석에서 산포모수의 역할에 관한 연구

  • 박태성;신민웅
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 1995
  • 반복측정자료의 분석을 위해 제안된 Liang and Zeger(1986)의 회귀모형은 일반화추정식(generalized estimationg equations, GEE)을 이용하여 모형의 모수를 추정한다. 이 모형은 반복측정된 반응변수와 설명변수들과의 관계를 추정하는 것이 주된 목적이기 때문에 회귀모수는 중요한 모수로 간주되나 산포모수는 중요하지 않은 장애모수(nuisance parameters)로 간주된다. 일반적으로 GEE 분석에서 회귀모수의 추정량은 산포모수에 상관없이 일치적(consistent)으로 얻어진다고 알려져 있다. 그러나 본 논문에서는 포아송분포를 따르는 반복측정자료에 대한 사례연구와 모의 실험을 통해서 일반적으로 믿어져왔던 것과는 달리 GEE 방법이 산포모수에 민감하게 영향을 받고 있음을 보였다. 특히 산포모수의 값이 일정하지 않은 경우에는 GEE 방법이 산포모수에 민감 하게 영향을 받고 있음을 보였다. 특히 산포모수의 값이 일정하지 않은 경우에는 GEE 방법에서 밝혀진 회귀모수 추정량의 일치성에도 문제가 발생할 수 있음을 보였다.

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Turnover determinants with truncated count data model (절단된 가산자료모형을 이용한 이직횟수 결정요인 분석)

  • Cho, Jangsik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.1595-1604
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we analyze the determinants that affect the turnover frequency of college graduates who have experienced turnover. Since the number of turnover which is a dependent variable has only a positive integer value that does not include '0', it has count data truncated at '0'. In the case of using the standard Poisson regression model or the negative binomial regression model for the data with truncated count data, the estimated statistic has a problem with the bias and inconsistent estimator. To solve this problem, we analyzed Poisson and negative binomial regression models using truncated count data model. The main results are as follows; First, we note that the truncated negative binomial regression model is most significant. Second, it can be seen that the turnover rate of college graduates is higher than that of vocational colleges. Third, the higher the grade point average and the higher the satisfaction of major and university, the lower the turnover frequency. Finally, as the salary and firm size increased, and the number of regular employees decreased, the number of turnover decreased significantly.

The factors of insurance solicitor's turnovers of life insurance using Poisson regression (포아송회귀 모형을 활용한 생명보험 설계사들의 이직 요인 분석)

  • Chun, Heuiju
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1337-1347
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates factors affecting the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers of life insurance companies based on questionnaire about them. Since the response variable which is the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers is count data, it is analyzed by Poisson regression which is one of generalized regression. When work year in current company, which is direct influential factor on the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers, is controlled, affiliated corporation has been found to be the most influential factor. In addition, age, motivation to work as financial planner, monthly income, a number of average new contract per month, and final education have been identified to be important factors. If insurance solicitor's occupant organization is large company, the number of turnovers becomes small, but if the organization is general agent(GA), it becomes larger. When insurance solicitor's age is high, the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers are reduced. If the motivation to become a financial planner is due to acquaintance such as family and relatives, the number of turnovers becomes small.

Bayesian Analysis for the Zero-inflated Regression Models (영과잉 회귀모형에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • Jang, Hak-Jin;Kang, Yun-Hee;Lee, S.;Kim, Seong-W.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.603-613
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    • 2008
  • We often encounter the situation that discrete count data have a large portion of zeros. In this case, it is not appropriate to analyze the data based on standard regression models such as the poisson or negative binomial regression models. In this article, we consider Bayesian analysis for two commonly used models. They are zero-inflated poisson and negative binomial regression models. We use the Bayes factor as a model selection tool and computation is proceeded via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Crash count data are analyzed to support theoretical results.

A Study on the Influence of the Space Syntax and the Urban Characteristics on the Incidence of Crime Using Negative Binomial Regression (음이항 회귀모형을 이용한 공간구문론 및 도시특성요소가 범죄발생에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeong Jun;Choi, Yeol
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.333-340
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    • 2016
  • The aim of this study is to specifically understand the characteristics of the crime by empirical analysis for the determining factors that affect determining the crime through the space syntax in Busan. In this study, poisson regression and negative binomial regression were used for accurate analysis. 8 variables that were significant of the total 13 variables. The summary if this study based on the results is as follow. Statistically significant variables are female ratio, over 65 population ratio, administration are and commercial area ratio in characteristics. And the more CCTVs a region has, the lower crime rate it shows. As a results of examing whether space syntax variables can predict crime occurrence places. Space with low connectivity come to be a crime causal factor because they have few other related spaces and thereby have low possibility of sudden appearance of interrupters, which results in low surveillance levels of foot passengers. It will provide the basic data that can contribute to urban planning and implementation of crime prevention aspects.