• Title, Summary, Keyword: 이익예측력

Search Result 19, Processing Time 0.039 seconds

A Comparison of Earnings Quality Between KOSPI Firms and KOSDAQ Firms (상장기업과 코스닥기업의 회계이익의 질 비교)

  • Moon, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.129-141
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study analyzed and compared the accounting earnings quality after the adoption of K-IFRS, targeting the stock exchange-listed firms (KOSPI, KOSDAQ). The analysis first revealed that KOSPI had higher quality accruals, and better persistence and predictability of the reported earnings and cash flows, compared to KOSDAQ. Second, in both KOSPI and KOSDAQ, the predictability of future cash flow showed that the accounting earnings was better than the cash flows. Third, for the persistence and predictability of earnings associated with the degree of accruals, in KOSPI and KOSDAQ both all, groups with better accruals quality had greater persistence and predictability of earnings, and a better future cash flow predictability of accounting earnings.

부실기업표본을 이용한 이익조절행위와 부실예측에 관한 실증적 연구

  • Han, Gil-Seok;Lee, Chi-Hun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.141-170
    • /
    • 2000
  • 기업의 부실화과정에서 경영자는 그 누구보다도 먼저 부실화의 재무적 징후를 포착할 수 있을 것이며, 부정적인 정보가 외부에 누출되는 경우 발생할 수 있는 은행의 대출중단 등의 치명적 비용을 피하기 위하여 긍정적인 정보를 조작 유포시킬 강한 유인이 존재한다. 이러한 인식에 근거하여 경영자의 이익조절 가능성이 높아지는 기업부실화의 일정시점에서 기업부실예측의 현실적인 모형을 추정하는 데 본 연구의 목적이 있다. 본 연구에서는 부실기업에서 재무정보의 이익조절행위 가능성을 검증하기 위하여 1995년에서 1998년까지 부실화된 115개 상장기업들의 부실전 재무정보를 분석하였고, 총 20개의 재무변수와 그 변화율을 고려하여 부실예측모형을 추정하였다. 이러한 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 부실표본기업의 경우에 재무정보 상호간의 논리성이 와해되거나 크게 약화되어 경영자의 심각한 이익조절행위가 있는 것으로 추정되며, 수익성 정보에 집중되어 부실 2년전부터 심해지고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 경영자의 이익조절행위로 인해 논리적 상관관계가 와해되지 않은 재무정보들은 부실예측에 대한 설명력을 갖고 있으며, 본 연구에서 9개의 재무변수로 추정한 부실예측모형은 부실 1년전 80%의 우수한 예측력을 보여주고 있다.

  • PDF

예측치 이익을 이용한 EVA 기업가치모형에 관한 연구

  • Jo, Jang-Yeon;Gang, Hyo-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.117-140
    • /
    • 2000
  • 본 연구는 그간 실무계와 학계에서 주목을 받고 있는 EVA 모형과 기업가치모형간의 상호 관계를 보여주고 실증적으로 예측치 경상이익과 순이익을 이용하여 EVA와 기업가치를 측정하고 이러한 예측가치와 실제가치와의 관계를 살펴보았다. 1990년부터 5년간 모두 535 기업을 대상으로 분석한 결과 강효석과 남명수 (1998)의 연구와 같이 모든 연도에 부의 EVA를 보여 주고 있으며 1년 예측치보다 2년 예측치를 기초로 산정한 기업가치가 실제가치에 근접하였다. 각 연도 별로 보면 예상경상이익을 사용한 경우 70%부터 94%까지의 높은 설명력을 보여주며, 5년 누계는 83%의 설명력을 나타냈다. 경상이익 대신 순이익을 사용한 경우도 유사한 결과를 보여주고 있다. 끝으로 가치평가오차를 원천별로 그리고 유형별로 분석하였는데 기업가치 예측오차 중 경제전반이 설명하는 부분은 10%정도, 산업은 $13{\sim}15%$, 그리고 개별기업이 $75{\sim}77%$를 차지하고 있어 개별기업의 중요도가 미국에 비하여 낮은 수준을 보여주고 있다. 유형별로도 편의비율이나 회귀비율이 $5{\sim}8%$수준인데 비하여 무작위 비율이 86%수준을 보여 주고있다.

  • PDF

K-IFRS Reconciliations and Predicting Future Earnings (K-IFRS 도입 시점의 전환조정이 이후 기간의 미래이익 예측력에 미치는 영향)

  • Ji, Sang-Hyun;Kwak, Young-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.15 no.12
    • /
    • pp.283-291
    • /
    • 2017
  • This Study analyzes the predictability of accounting information from mandatory K-IFRS adoption using the K-IFRS reconciliations information. We use the sample of 2,557 firm-year Korea listed companies belonging to non-financial corporate sector during 2010-2016. Specifically, we examine whether K-IFS reconciliation would improve or reduce the predicting power for future earnings after K-IFRS adoption. The results of empirical analyses show that reconciliation information from discretionary judgement tend to reduce the predicting power of K-IFRS based accounting earnings for future earnings. This result indicates that managers are likely to use the adjustments process to reconcile K-GAAP accounting numbers with corresponding K-IFRS as means to realize the various private utility. This study is expected to provide useful information by suggesting the need for more rigid screening schemes for the K-IFRS reconciliation process and also for adequate measures to be taken to ensure that the interests of the outside investors are properly protected.

Research for the improvement of the accuracy of analysts' profit forecast (증권사 애널리스트 이익예측치의 정확성 개선을 위한 연구)

  • Seo, Won-woo;Choi, Dae-young;Kim, Myung-soo;Kim, Jong-bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • /
    • pp.409-411
    • /
    • 2014
  • There have been various advanced research on how changes of analysts' profit forecasts affect stock prices. Also, consensus, which is usually drawn by the arithmetic mean of profit forecasts, has been widely harnessed among investors in stock market. Recently, it is emphasized to reflect the internal factors of individual forecasts to raise the accuracy of consensus. Based on national and international research, this study proposes a new methodology in consensus by applying statistically meaningful factors in computation.

  • PDF

기업도산예측(企業倒産豫測)에 관(關)한 실증적(實證的) 연구(硏究)

  • Jeong, Heon-Ung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
    • /
    • v.4 no.1
    • /
    • pp.123-149
    • /
    • 1998
  • 우리 나라 경제는 1993년 이후로 호황을 유지하다가 1996년 말부터는 경제불황이 닥쳐, 현재는 구제금융이라는 최악의 경제혼란기에 처해 있다. 하루에도 기업의 도산은 부지기수로 발생되고 있으며, 도산으로 인하여 국민들은 직장을 싫고 물가인상 등으로 가계마저 흔들리고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 재무비율에 의한 기업도산예측모델을 설정하려고 한다. 연구의 자료는 1996년 3월 은행연합회에서 개발한 '기업신용평가표'에 나타난 재무비율을 이용하였다. 연구의 결과를 보면 '기업신용평가표'의 변수는 기존연구에 비교하여 보면 도산예측력이 낮은 편인데, 그 이유는 기존연구는 대부분 통계적으로 검증된 5-6개의 변수를 대상으로 도산예측력을 나타내고 있는데 반하여, 본 연구에서는 기업신용평가표에서 선정된 모든 변수를 대상으로 분석했기 때문이다. 그러나 대체적으로 분석하여 볼 때 기업신용평가표의 재무비율 선정은 양호한 편으로 생각된다. 그러나 본 연구의 주목적은 신용평점에 의한 도산예측력분석이므로 본 연구의 선정모형에서 나타난 자기자본비율, 현금흐름/총부채(고정장기적합율), 매출액경상이익율, 총자본순이익율, 영업자산회전율 등은 기업신용평가내지 도산예측분석에 유용한 것으로 나타났다.

  • PDF

Evaluation of Corporate Distress Prediction Power using the Discriminant Analysis: The Case of First-Class Hotels in Seoul (판별분석에 의한 기업부실예측력 평가: 서울지역 특1급 호텔 사례 분석)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.10
    • /
    • pp.520-526
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study aims to develop a distress prediction model, in order to evaluate the distress prediction power for first-class hotels and to calculate the average financial ratio in the Seoul area by using the financial ratios of hotels in 2015. The sample data was collected from 19 first-class hotels in Seoul and the financial ratios extracted from 14 of these 19 hotels. The results show firstly that the seven financial ratios, viz. the current ratio, total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, interest coverage ratio to operating income, operating income to sales, net income to stockholders' equity, ratio of cash flows from operating activities to sales and total assets turnover, enable the top-level corporations to be discriminated from the failed corporations and, secondly, by using these seven financial ratios, a discriminant function which classifies the corporations into top-level and failed ones is estimated by linear multiple discriminant analysis. The accuracy of prediction of this discriminant capability turned out to be 87.9%. The accuracy of the estimates obtained by discriminant analysis indicates that the distress prediction model's distress prediction power is 78.95%. According to the analysis results, hotel management groups which administrate low level corporations need to focus on the classification of these seven financial ratios. Furthermore, hotel corporations have very different financial structures and failure prediction indicators from other industries. In accordance with this finding, for the development of credit evaluation systems for such hotel corporations, there is a need for systems to be developed that reflect hotel corporations' financial features.

The Study on the Risk Predict Method and Government Funds Supporting for Small and Medium Enterprises (로짓분석을 통한 중소기업 정책자금 지원의 위험예측력에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-23
    • /
    • 2009
  • Prior bankruptcy studies have established that bankrupt firm's pre-filing financial ratios are different from those of healthy firms or of randomly selected going concerns. However, they may not be sufficiently different from the financial ratios of other firms in financial distress to allow the development of a ratio-based model that predicts bankruptcy with reasonable accuracy. As the result, in the multiple discriminant model, independent variables divided firms into bankrupt firms and healthy firms are retained earnings to total asset, receivable turnover, net income to sales, financial expenses, inventory turnover, owner's equity to total asset, cash flow to current liability, and current asset to current liability. Moreover four variables Retained earnings to total asset, net income to sales, total asset turnover, owner's equity to total asset indicate that these valuables classify bankrupt firms and distress firms. On the other hand, Owner's Equity to borrowed capital, Ordinary income to Net Sales, Operating Income to Total Asset, Total Asset Turnover and Inventory Turnover are selected to predict bankruptcy possibility in the Logistic regression model.

  • PDF

The Predictive Ability of Accruals with Respect to Future Cash Flows : In-sample versus Out-of-Sample Prediction (발생액의 미래 현금흐름 예측력 : 표본 내 예측 대 표본 외 예측)

  • Oh, Won-Sun;Kim, Dong-Chool
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.69-98
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study investigates in-sample and out-of-sample predictive abilities of accruals and accruals components with respect to future cash flows using models developed by Barth et al.(2001). In tests, data collected fromda62 Korean KOSPI and KOSDAQ listed firms for ccr4-2007 are used. Results of in-sample prediction tests are similar with those of Barth et al.(2001). Their accrual components model is better than other three models(NI only model, CF only model and NI-total accruals model) in future cash flows predictive ability. That is, in the case of in-sample prediction, accrual components excluding amortization have additional information contents for future cash flows. But in out-of-sample tests, the results are different. The model including operational cash flows(CF only model) shows best out-of-sample predictive ability with respect to future cash flows among above four prediction models. The accrual components model of Barth et al.(2001) has worst out-of-sample predictive ability. The results are robust to sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, we can't find the evidence that accruals and accrual components have predictive ability with respect to future cash flows in out-of-sample prediction tests. This results are consistent with results of Lev et al.(2005), and inconsistent with the belief of accounting standards formulating organizations such as FASB and KASB.

  • PDF

Evaluation of Distress Prediction Model for Food Service Industry in Korea : Using the Logit Analysis (국내 외식기업의 부실예측모형 평가 : 로짓분석을 적용하여)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.11
    • /
    • pp.151-156
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study aims to develop a distress prediction model and to evaluate distress prediction power for the food services industry by using 2017 food service industry financial ratios. Samples were collected from 46 food service industries, and we extracted 14 financial ratios from them. The results show that, first, there are eight ratios (financial ratio, current ratio, operating income to sales, net income to assets, ratio of cash flows, income to stockholders' equity, rate of operating income, and total asset turnover) that can discriminate failures in food service industries and the top-level food service industries. Second, by using these eight financial ratios, the logit function classifies the top-level food service industries, and failures in the food service industry can be estimated by using logit analysis. The verification results as to accuracy in the estimated logit analysis indicate that the model's distress-prediction power is 89.1%.