• Title, Summary, Keyword: 사전적 개입

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Forecasting the Seaborne Trade Volume using Intervention Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network Model (개입 승법계절 ARIMA와 인공신경망모형을 이용한 해상운송 물동량의 예측)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.69-84
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to forecast the seaborne trade volume during January 1994 to December 2014 using the multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) along with intervention factors and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Diagnostic checks of the ARIMA model were conducted using the Ljung-Box Q and Jarque-Bera statistics. All types of ARIMA process satisfied the basic assumption of residuals. The ARIMA(2,1,0) $(1,0,1)_{12}$ model showed the lowest forecast error. In addition, the prediction error of the artificial neural network indicated a level of 5.9% on hidden layer 5, which suggests a relatively accurate forecasts. Furthermore, the ex-ante predicted values based on the ARIMA model and ANN model are presented. The result shows that the seaborne trade volume increases very slowly.

Study on the Multilevel Effects of Integrated Crisis Intervention Model for the Prevention of Elderly Suicide: Focusing on Suicidal Ideation and Depression (노인자살예방을 위한 통합적 위기개입모델 다층효과 연구: 자살생각·우울을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eun Joo;Yook, Sung Pil
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.173-200
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    • 2017
  • This study is designed to verify the actual effect on the prevention of the elderly suicide of the integrated crisis intervention service which has been widely provided across all local communities in Gyeonggi-province focusing on the integrated crisis intervention model developed for the prevention of elderly suicide. The integrated crisis intervention model for the local communities and its manual were developed for the prevention of elderly suicide by integrating the crisis intervention theory which contains local community's integrated system approach and the stress vulnerability theory. For the analysis of the effect, the geriatric depression and suicidal ideation scale was adopted and the data was collected as follows; The data was collected from 258 people in the first preliminary test. Then, it was collected from the secondary test of 184 people after the integrated crisis intervention service was performed for 6 months. The third collection of data was made from 124 people after 2 or 3 years later using the backward tracing method. As for the analysis, the researcher used the R Statistics computing to conduct the test equating, and the vertical scaling between measuring points. Then, the researcher conducted descriptive statistics analysis and univariate analysis of variance, and performed multi-level modeling analysis using Bayesian estimation. As a result of the study, it was found out that the integrated crisis intervention model which has been developed for the elderly suicide prevention has a statistically significant effect on the reduction of elderly suicide in terms of elderly depression and suicide ideation in the follow-up measurement after the implementation of crisis intervention rather than in the first preliminary scores. The integrated crisis intervention model for the prevention of elderly suicide was found to be effective to the extent of 0.56 for the reduction of depression and 0.39 for the reduction of suicidal ideation. However, it was found out in the backward tracing test conducted 2-3 years after the first crisis intervention that the improved values returned to its original state, thus showing that the effect of the intervention is not maintained for long. Multilevel analysis was conducted to find out the factors such as the service type(professional counseling, medication, peer counseling), characteristics of the client (sex, age), the characteristics of the counselor(age, career, major) and the interaction between the characteristics of the counselor and intervention which affect depression and suicidal ideation. It was found that only medication can significantly reduce suicidal ideation and that if the counselor's major is counseling, it significantly further reduces suicidal ideation by interacting with professional counseling. Furthermore, as the characteristics of the suicide prevention experts are found to regulate the intervention effect on elderly suicide prevention in applying integrated crisis intervention model, the primary consideration should be given to the counseling ability of these experts.

Effectiveness of Intervention for the Caregivers of Long-term Care Elderly (장기요양보호대상노인 가족부양자에 대한 개입의 효과성)

  • Kim, Soo-Young
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.285-310
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    • 2004
  • The major purpose of this study is to examine effectiveness of an intervention program which aims at education/training caregivers of the dementia and/or stroke elderly. This program was conducted at group level. Participants of this program were the primary caregivers who have taken care of the elderly with dementia and/or stroke. To test the effectiveness of the caregiver education/training program, this study employed an quasi-experimental design: to compare pretest score with posttest ones for the same participants. Total forty two primary caregivers have completed the program. Seventeen caregivers were in experimental group, whereas twenty five ones belonged to control group. Our data suggest that, for the primary caregivers, subjective quality of life was more important than cargiving burden. Subjective quality of life among the caregivers significantly improved, after completing the program. This result suggests that a short-term intervention program at group level is not effective to reduce caregiving burden because an infra structure of community resources, to which the caregivers and their family access, did not remain at sufficient level. However, participants have showed improved mutual solidarity, and they have exposed to wider spectrum of a variety of information. As a result, they have perceived that the level of subjective quality of life has positively changed. Additional factors have influenced on determining the quality of life among the caregivers. The caregivers, whose demented elderly showed lower level of ADL and IADL, or who have experienced the short period of caregiving, were more likely to belong to higher level of quality of life. The quality of life among the caregivers were even more improved in the following group: being young, and highly educated, man. One of the contributions from this study is that we have found caregiver's characteristics, which need an intervention most. In addition, our study implies that specific contents of the caregivers' education/training program should be conducted based on each family's unique characteristics.

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Development and Evaluation of Smartphone Detox Program for University Students (대학생을 위한 스마트폰 디톡스 프로그램 개발과 평가)

  • Kim, Nami;Buctot, Danilo;Park, Kyung Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • pp.353-354
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    • 2018
  • 최근 스마트폰의 과다 사용과 관련한 문제를 해결하기 위하여 스마트폰 디톡스라는 새로운 개입방법이 소개되고 있다. 스마트폰 디톡스는 마치 단식을 통해 몸에 있는 독소와 노페물을 제거하듯이 스마트폰 사용을 잠시라도 중단하고 내면의 모습을 돌아봄으로써 스마트폰을 건강하게 활용하여 신체적 정신적 사회적 건강을 실천하자는 취지이다. 이러한 흐름에 발을 맞추어 본 연구에서는 대학생들의 과다한 스마트 폰 사용을 개선하고 전인적인 건강(well-being)을 실천하기 위하여 "스마트폰 디톡스 프로그램"을 개발하고 그 효과를 확인하였다. 서울의 S대학교 16명의 대학생이 전체 프로그램을 완료하였으며, 각 회기별 자기평가보고서와 사전-사후 설문조사(스마트폰 중독척도 정신건강척도 긍정심리자본척도 자기생활관리척도)를 완성하였다. SPSS 23을 이용하여, 사전검사와 사후검사에서 변수 간의 차이를 확인하기 위해 Wilcoxon 부호순위검정을 시행하고, 각 척도들 사이의 관계는 피어슨 상관분석을 이루어졌다. 그리고 자기평가보고서는 각 회기 참여에 대한 질적 자료로 분석되었다. 그 결과, 개입 프로그램을 통해 스마트 폰 중독 및 정신 건강 점수가 유의미하게 감소하였으며, 자기 관리 및 긍정심리자본의 평균 점수가 증가하였다. 더불어 프로그램이 진행되는 동안이라도 스마트폰 사용을 중단하고 건강한 신체, 긍정적인 정신, 역동적인 대인관계를 경험하면서 스마트폰을 지혜롭게 사용하고 주변을 여유롭게 돌아보는 변화가 생겼으며, 대학생들의 생활에서 스마트폰을 건강하게 사용할 수 있는 모습이 확인되었다.

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A Study on the Effectiveness of Social Work Intervention for the Family Caregivers of Older Persons with Stroke (뇌졸중 기능손상 노인의 가족수발자에 대한 사회복지실천 개입의 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.53
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    • pp.231-255
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of social work intervention for the family caregivers of the older persons with stroke. Twelve caregivers were assigned to either a treatment group or a control group. The treatment group intervention consisted of 8 weekly, 2-hour sessions which included education, peer and professional support, individual counselling. Wilcoxon test of the pretest and posttest scores of the two groups showed that those in the treatment program experienced significant decrease in caregiving burden and loneliness compared with caregivers who received no intervention. They also experienced increase in self-esteem, self-efficacy in dealing with caregiving tasks, satisfaction with a relationship with the care-receiver, emotional support. Most of these intervention effects were maintained in the 3-month follow-up measurement except loneliness and the caregiver-carereceiver relationship. Caregivers in the treatment group showed overall satisfaction with the program and willingness to continue to attend in the interventions. Based on these findings, implications for social work practice including self-help groups, psychotherapy for the caregivers, expanding social work intervention for the family caregivers of the older persons were discussed.

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The Construction of Predicate Subcategorization Using Tree Tagged Corpus (구문구조부착 말뭉치를 이용한 술어의 하위범주화 정보 구축)

  • Ryu, Pum-Mo;Jang, Myung-Gil;Park, Soo-Jun;Park, Jae-Deuk;Park, Doing-In
    • Annual Conference on Human and Language Technology
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    • pp.116-121
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    • 1997
  • 한국어 문장에서 술어의 역할이 매우 중요하기 때문에 술어의 하위범주화 정보는 한국어 분석 및 생성에서 필수적이다. 그러나 기존의 한국어 술어의 하위범주화 사전은 전문가의 사전지식이나 직관에 의존하여 만들어졌기 때문에 주관적이고 오류의 가능성이 높으며 많은 수작업이 필요했다. 또 영역에 독립적인 하위범주화 정보를 구축하는 작업은 매우 어렵기 때문에 응용영역에 맞는 하위범주화 정보를 쉽게 구축하는 방법이 요구되었다. 본 논문에서는 구문구조부착 말뭉치를 이용하여 전문가의 제한된 개입만으로 통계정보와 명사의 의미정보를 포함하는 술어의 하위범주화 정보 구축 방법을 제안한다.

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Forecasts of the 2011-BDI Using the ARIMA-Type Models (ARIMA모형을 이용한 2011년 BDI의 예측)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.207-218
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of the study is to predict the shipping business during the period of 2011 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2010. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors of all the ARIMA-type models are somewhat higher than normally expected. Furthermore, the random walk model outperforms all the ARIMA-type models. This reveals that the BDI is just a random walk phenomenon and it's meaningless to predict the BDI using various econometric techniques. The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market is expected to be bearish in 2011. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

Forecasting the BDI during the Period of 2012 (2012 BDI의 예측)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2011
  • In much the same way as the US Lehman crisis of 2008-2009 severely impacted the European economy through financial market dislocation, a European banking crisis would materially impact the US economy through a generalized increase in global risk aversion. A deepening of the European crisis could very well derail the US economic recovery and have a harmful impact on the Asian economies. This kind of vicious circle could be a bad news to the shipping companies. The purpose of the study is to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business during the period of 2012 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2011. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is also calculated. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors, however, are somewhat higher than normally expected. This reveals that it is very difficult to predict the BDI The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market will be bearish in 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

한국석탄산업(韓國石炭産業)의 현황(現況)과 구조개선(構造改善) 방안(方案)

  • Kim, Ji-Hong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.91-115
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    • 1988
  • 1980년대 하반기부터 한국(韓國)의 석탄산업(石炭産業)은 70년대말에서 80년대초까지와는 상이한 여건에 직면함으로써 구조적(構造的) 변화(變化)를 필요로 하고 있다. 이에 반하여 정부(政府)는 석탄정책(石炭政策)에 깊이 개입하면서도 경제여건변화(經濟與件變化)에 적절한 정책대응(政策對應)을 펴지 못하고 오히려 기업퇴출(企業退出)(exit)을 막고 산업합리화(産業合理化)를 저해함으로써 장기적으로 경제(經濟)의 효율성(效率性)을 떨어뜨리고 자원배분(資源配分)을 왜곡(歪曲)시키는 결과를 초래하였다. 본고(本稿)에서는 미래의 에너지파동(波動) 가능성(可能性)을 고려한 국내석탄정책(國內石炭政策)과 수입탄정책(輸入炭政策)에 대하여 논의하고, 개방경제하(開放經濟下)에서의 사회적(社會的) 마찰(摩擦)을 극소화하기 위한 석탄가격구조(石炭價格構造) 개선방안(改善方案)을 제시하였다. 분석결과(分析結果)에 따르면 현행(現行) 수입탄가격(輸入炭價格)은 오히려 국내탄질(國內炭質)의 저급화(低級化)를 유발시키는 저급화(低級化)를 유발시키는 왜곡현상(歪曲現象)을 초래 하고 있으므로, 앞으로는 국내탄가(國內炭價)를 석공원가기준(石公原價基準)에서 수입탄가(輸入炭價)를 기준으로 하는 결정방식으로 전환하고 수입탄가(輸入炭價)와 국내탄가(國內炭價)의 열량별(熱量別) 가격구조(價格構造)를 개선할 필요가 있다. 그리고 정부주도(政府主導)의 탄광통폐합(炭鑛統廢合)은 또다른 비효율성(非效率性)과 자원배분(資源配分)의 왜곡(歪曲)을 가져올 우려가 있으므로 가격정책(價格政策), 정부보조(政府補助) 등을 통한 간접통제방식(間接統制方式)으로 민간경제의 효율성을 유도하여 주는 것이 바람직하며, 또한 기업퇴출(企業退出)에 따른 탄광지역(炭鑛地域)의 경제활동(經濟活動) 위축(萎縮)과 실업문제(失業問題) 등에 사전적인 정책대응(政策對應) 필요하다.

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Development and Effectiveness of Child Abuse Prevention Program for Marriage Immigrant Women in Korea (결혼이주여성을 위한 아동학대예방프로그램의 개발과 효과성 검증)

  • Park, Myungsook;Lee, Jaekyoung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.8
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    • pp.117-131
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the prevention program of child abuse and to verify the effects of the program for marriage immigrant women in Korea. The prevention program was consist of 5 sessions and it was provided to participants once a week for five weeks. Participants were recruited thru the community centers for multi-cultural families in Korea. This study verified the effects of the prevention program with the comparison groups(pre-post). With the independent-samples t-test and paired-samples t-test, the program verified significant effects on the variables of acculturation stress, social support, and recognition of social policy. This study suggests the parenting education of child abuse for multi-cultural families in Korea.