• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고모형

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확률회귀모형을 이용한 고속도로의 사고요인 분석

  • Lee, Gi-Yeong;Lee, Yong-Taek
    • 도로교통
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    • s.94
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2003
  • 본 연구는 사고요인과 사고모형의 문헌고찰을 통해 고속도로를 주행하는 버스와 화물차의 사고모형을 개발하고 그 적용방안에 대해 고찰하고자 수행되었다. 고속도로 사고 중 대형차로 인한 차량당 사고율은 승용차보다 월등히 높아 사고의 심각성을 나타내고 있으며, 따라서 이에 대한 별도의 검토가 필요한 시점에 와 있다. 특히 본 연구에 활용된 자료는 비집계된 사상자수로 구간자료를 집합화함으로써 발생하는 문제점을 해소할 수 있다. 모형의 분석기법으로 국내의 경우, 대부분 단순회귀식으로 사고모형을 개발, 적용하여 왔으나 사고수와 사상자수의 특성상 이산적 확률변수로 해석하여 포아송분포와 음이항분포로 적용하는 것이 바람직하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 버스와 화물차의 사고유형별로 적합한 사고 모형을 개발하여 이로 인한 인사사고 요인에 대한 영향을 분석하고 그 적용방안을 제시하였다. 이러한 연구는 도로설계, 운영, 교통법규, 교통행정 등의 분야에서 거시적인 정책적 방향성을 제시하리라 판단된다. 특히 본 연구는 고속도로 운영주체인 한국도로공사의 고속도로사고조서를 바탕으로 사고유형별 사고모형을 개발, 적용한 것으로 고속도로의 안정성 향상을 위한 제반 정책 수립에 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

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Comparative Analysis on the Characteristics and Models of Traffic Accidents by Day and Nighttime in the Case of Cheongju 4-legged ignalized Intersections (주·야간 교통사고의 특성 및 사고모형 비교분석 -청주시 4지 신호교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Doo Seon;Oh, Sang Jin;Kim, Tae Young;Park, Byung Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.2D
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    • pp.181-189
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to comparatively analyze the characteristics and models of traffic accidents by day and nighttime. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to testing the differences and developing the models (multiple linear and non-linear and Poisson and negative binomial regression) using the data of Cheongju 4-legged signalized intersections. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, the differences between day and nighttime accidents were defined. Second, 12 accident models which are all statistically significant were developed. Finally, the differences between day and nighttime models were comparatively analyzed using the common and specific variables.

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Analyzing the Characteristics of Traffic Accidents and Developing the Models by Day and Night in the Case of the Cheongju Arterial Link Sections (청주시 간선가로 구간의 주.야간 사고특성 및 모형개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Young;Lim, Jin-Kang;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of traffic accidents and to develop the models by day and night-time in the case of the arterial link sections. In pursuing the above, this study uses the 224 accident data occurred at the 24 arterial link sections in Cheongju. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, it was analyzed that the number of accidents during day was more than night, but the accidents rate during night was higher than day. Second, four models which were all statistically significant were developed. Finally, the differences between the day and night models were comparatively analyzed using independent variables.

Developing the Traffic Accident Models by the Function of Arterial Link Sections in the Case of Cheongju (간선도로 기능별 교통사고모형 개발 - 청주시를 사례로 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Sun;Kim, Tae-Young;Kim, Kyung-Hwan;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2011
  • This study deals with the traffic accident of arterial link sections in the case of Cheongju. The purpose of the study is to develop the traffic accident model by the function of arterial links. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using the accident data of main and minor arterial roads divided by 472 small link sections. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, as the t test on the accident characteristics of main and minor arterial roads shows that there are differences in the number of accident and EPDO(equivalent property damage only) between two roads, the development of models by function is analyzed to be appropriate. Second, it is analyzed that ZINB models are all statistically suitable to the number of accident and EPDO of main arterial roads. Third, the analysis shows that EPDOs of minor arterial roads fit to ZINB, and the number of the accident fit to ZIP model. Finally, the common variables of main arterial roads are evaluated to be the traffic volume and the number of inflection point, and those of minor be the average grade.

Logistic Regression Accident Models by Location in the Case of Cheong-ju 4-Legged Signalized Intersections (사고위치별 로지스틱 회귀 교통사고 모형 - 청주시 4지 신호교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Yang, Jeong-Mo;Kim, Jun-Young
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2009
  • The goal of this study is to develop Logistic regression model by accident location(entry section, exit section, inside intersection and pedestrian crossing section). Based on the accident data of Chungbuk Provincial Police Agency(2004$\sim$2005) and the field survey data, the geometric elements, environmental factor and others related to traffic accidents were analyzed. Developed models are all analyzed to be statistically significant(chi-square p=0.000, Nagelkerke $R^2$=0.363$\sim$0.819). The models show that the common factors of accidents are the traffic volume(ADT), distant of crossing and exclusive left turn lane, and the specific factors are the minor traffic volume(inside intersection model) and U-turn of main road(pedestrian crossing model). Hosmer & Loineshow tests are evaluated to be statistically significant(p$\geqq$0.05) except the entry section model. The correct classification rates are also analyzed to be very predictable(more than 73.9% to all models).

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Accident Models of 4-Legged Signalized Intersections by Vehicle Type in the Case of Cheongju (4지 신호교차로 차종별 사고모형 -청주시를 사례로-)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Park, Gil-Soo;In, Byung-Chul
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2008
  • This study deals with the accident models by vehicle type. The goal is to develop the accident models by vehicle type using the data of 143 4-legged signalized intersections in Cheongju. In pursuing the above, this study gives the particular attentions to explaining the relationships between the values of EPDO(equivalent property damage only) and the traffic and geometric elements. The main results analyzed are the followings. First, 6 negative binomial models are developed, which are all significant at the 90% confidence level. Second, the values of ${\rho}^2$ by vehicle type are 0.14307(auto), 0.35556(large van), 0.21684(small van), 0.205152(motocycle), 0.32338(light-duty truck) and 0.29046(heavy-duty truck), that are all analyzed to be statistically significant. Finally, the common variable included in all models is ADT(average daily traffic), and the specific variable(SV) of auto is analyzed to be the sum of lane width of main road, SV of large van is the average yellow time, and SV of small van is the difference in the number of lane between main and minor road.

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Characteristics and Models of Intersection Accidents by Elderly Drivers in the Case of Cheongju 4-legged Signalized Intersections (고령운전자 교차로 사고의 특성 및 모형 - 청주시 4지 신호교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Han, Sang-Wook;Kim, Kyung-Hwan
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2009
  • This study deals with the traffic accidents of elderly drivers. The objectives are to comparatively analyze the characteristics of accident between the elderly and other drivers, and to develop the models of traffic accidents. In pursuing the above, this paper gives particular attentions to testing the differences between the above two groups, and developing the models(Poisson and negative binomial regression) using the data of Cheongju 4-legged signalized intersections. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, the differences between the elderly and other drivers' accidents were clearly defined by the time of day, accident type, etc. Second, 3 accident models which were all statistically significant were developed. Finally, the differences between elderly and other drivers' models were comparatively analyzed using the common and specific variables.

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Accident Models of Rotary by Vehicle Type (차량유형별 로터리 사고모형)

  • Han, Su-San;Park, Byeong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2011
  • This study deals with the traffic accidents data from the Korean rotaries (circular intersections) to verify their characteristics affected by different vehicle types. This paper categorized the data into three groups based on vehicle types, and developed a set of accident models. The paper proposed two ZIP models and one negative binomial model through a statistical analysis for three vehicle types: automobile, truck and van, and others. The differences among those models were then statistically compared.

Simultaneous Equation Models for Evaluating Roundabout Accidents According to Different Driving Types (연립방정식을 이용한 운전유형별 회전교차로 사고모형)

  • Kim, Kyung Hwan;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2012
  • This study dealt with traffic accidents occurring within roundabouts. The objective was to develop roundabout accident models for different driving types by using simultaneous equations. In pursuing the above, this study used a statistical program SPSS 17.0 to accommodate data from 148 accidents occurred within 39 roundabouts of Korea. In addition, the 2SLS(2 stage least square) estimation method was adopted to calibrate the models. The main results are as follows. First, both the number of accidents and the EPDO were evaluated to have bilateral relationships. Second, all 6 different simultaneous equation models according to driving types were found to be statistically significant. Third, the developed models were compared to each other with respect to either common or specific variables. Finally, variables such as ADT, conflicting rate, heavy vehicle ratio, circulatory roadway width, number of circulatory roadway lane, approach lane width, average approach lanes, parking places, and bus stops were selected as independent variables for the models.