• Title/Summary/Keyword: 글로벌 금융위기

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해운이슈 - 글로벌 금융위기가 2009년에는 과연 어떻게 전개될까? - 포스코경영연구소, '글로벌 금융위기 전개방향' 분석 -

  • 한국선주협회
    • 해운
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    • no.1
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    • pp.19-22
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    • 2009
  • 사상최고의 호황기와 최악의 침체기를 동시에 경험했던 세계 해운업계는 2009년에 글로벌 금융위기가 어떻게 전개될 것인지에 대해 촉각을 곤두세우고 있다. 지난해 9월 미국 리먼브러더스의 파산으로 야기된 글로벌 금융위기가 전세계로 확산되면서 해운시황이 5개월 사이에 최악의 상황으로 곤두박질했기 때문이다. 긍정적인 전망 보다는 부정적인 전망이 우세한 가운데 포스코경영연구소에서‘글로벌 금융위기 전개방향 및 파급영향’을 분석했다. 다음은 그 내용을 정리한 것이다.

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해운이슈 - 세계 금융위기 발발로 인한 한국경제 파급효과 클 듯 - 삼성경제연구소, '글로벌 금융위기와 한국경제' 발표 -

  • 한국선주협회
    • 해운
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    • no.10
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2008
  • 최근 글로벌 금융위기가 심화된 이후 한국경제의 불확실성이 높아지고 있다. 환율과 주가를 비롯한 제반 금융변수들의 변동폭이 사상 최고치를 기록하는 등 국내 금융시장이 불안한 모습을 보이고 있다. 다음은 삼성경제연구소에서 최근 발표한 '글로벌 금융위기와 한국경제'를 요약정리한 것이다.

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Measures of Underlying Inflation and Evaluation of Inflation Targeting with Global Crisis in Korea (글로벌 금융위기와 물가안정목표제 평가: 근원인플레이션을 중심으로)

  • Park, Won-Am
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2010
  • The global financial crisis has exerted enormous impacts on the attainment of inflation target in Korea. The annual average CPI inflation was 3.3% during the targeting period of 2007-2009 and the target was $3.0{\pm}0.5%$. Thus Korea has succeeded in keeping annual average CPI inflation just below the upper limit of the 2007-2009 target under the global crisis. This paper intends to evaluate the performance of the inflation targeting system in Korea. First, it estimates the conventional call rate reaction equation under the global crisis and finds that the policy interest rates never reacted to expected inflation, output gap, and won/dollar exchange rate, as expected by theory. Second, it identifies the shock of global financial crisis into core and non-core, applying the structural VAR model. The core shock was defined to have no (medium- to) long-run impact on real output. The core shock was identified to have the character of the demand shock, since it has the positive impact on the inflation and output in the short run. The structural core inflation due to core shock was an attractor of headline inflation, not vice versa. Therefore, the structural core inflation that reflects the demand-side shock would be the better intermediate target for the final headline inflation target than the official core inflation that excludes the volatile inflation of agricultural and oil-related products. During the inflation targeting period of 2007-2009, the structural core inflation was more volatile than the official core inflation, because the global crisis has very large negative impacts on the domestic demand as well as the prices of agricultural and oil-related products. This paper shows that the negative core shock during the fourth quarter of 2008 was larger than that in the financial crisis in 1998. But the core shock turned into positive very quickly in 2009, as the Korean economy recovered very quickly from crisis. The volatile changes in structural core inflation suggests that the Bank of Korea barely managed to attain the 2007-2009 inflation target, owing to the very large negative impacts of the global financial crisis on the domestic demand. It also suggests that the rapid rise in core inflation with the rapid recovery of the Korean economy will lead to rapid rise in headline inflation.

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Spillover Effects among Chinese, Korean, and the U.S. Stock Markets -Comparison of the two financial crises- (아시아 외환위기와 글로벌 금융위기에서의 중국, 한국, 미국주식시장 사이의 spillover효과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyu-Hyong;Chang, Kyung-Chun;Shi, An-Qi
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.97-118
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    • 2010
  • This paper explores the mean and volatility spillover effects among Chinese, Korean, and the U.S. stock markets during the Asian and global financial crises. We found that, during the Asian Financial crisis, there was no mean spillover effect to the Chinese stock markets. However, there were reciprocal mean spillover effects between the U.S. and the Korean market. This implies that Korean market was open, while Chinese market was secluded from the international financial market at that time. The negative volatility spillover effect between the U.S. and China reinforces this finding. During the global financial crisis, there was reciprocal mean spillover effect between the U.S. and China, and between the U.S. and Korea. This may reflect the fact that Chinese market has opened to the international financial market. However, the volatility spillover effect does not exist between China and the U.S., while the U.S. and Korea has reciprocal volatility spillover effect to each other. These findings may imply that China is still in the process of opening her stock market to international investors.

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Global Financial Crisis and the Monitoring Role of Foreign Investors (글로벌 금융위기와 외국인투자자의 감시자 역할)

  • Rhee, Chang Seop;Chun, Hong-min;Soh, Seung Bum
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.233-241
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze whether the influence of foreign investors from the monitoring role in Korean capital market is observed differently in accordance with the global financial crisis situation. We collected a total of 2,919 firm data from 2003 to 2015 and performed the empirical tests between foreign investor ownership and firms' cost of equity capital separately according to the situation of the global financial crisis. From the empirical results, foreign investors in general were playing a positive function in the Korean capital market by effectively performing the monitoring role for companies. However, we observed that their monitoring role is not effectively performed when the risk level of capital market is maximized, such as during the global financial crisis. The study suggested that the influence of foreign investors may vary depending on the level of risk in the capital market, which is expected to contribute to the market participants and academia.

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Korea's Exports of Machinery Intermediate Goods to East Asian Countries: Around the Global Financial Crisis (환율변동성이 동아시아 국가에 대한 한국의 기계류 중간재 수출에 미치는 영향: 글로벌 금융위기 전후를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Moon-Hyun
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.169-198
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the export of Korean machinery intermediate goods to East Asian countries using the export demand model. In order to secure the validity of the estimation of the exchange rate volatility for the export of machinery intermediate goods, various methods of volatility measurement are used including the GARCH model, the moving average standard deviation and the 12-month fixed average standard deviation. The long-term relationship between variables was analyzed by applying the panel cointegration tests and DOLS & FMOLS panel estimations. Analysis results found that prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, the total exports of machinery and exchange rate volatility positively affect the exports of intermediate goods such as general machinery, electronic machinery and transportation equipment, but did not affect the exports of precision machinery intermediate goods. After the global financial crisis, however, exchange rate volatility negatively affected total exports and the exports of all machinery intermediate goods. When analyzing the period before and after the global financial crisis, it had a positive impact on exports of precision machinery intermediate goods and a negative effect on total exports and the exports of other machinery intermediate goods.

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Politic confrontation process analysis of the authorities since global banking crisis occurrence (글로벌 금융위기 발생이후 정책기관의 정책 대응과정 분석)

  • Park, Hyeong-Mok
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.103-123
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    • 2009
  • The uncertainty of international financial market was increased suddenly, since 2008 September 15th Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. In spite of the money market stabilization management of various nations, the stock market of the world was visible the features which slump and sudden rise are insecure. The reliability about dollarization was depreciated suddenly in depression of American money market, and the dollarization was converted with important currency comparison bearish trend. Relates with this, this thesis analyzed press information about the policies which the authorities confronts since global banking crisis after Lehman situation. And it provided various current points. Despite these meanings, this research has several critical points. So this thesis refers the critical points and presets research direction In future.

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The Effects of Export Insurance on Korea's Exportation before and after 2008 Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기에 따른 수출보험이 한국의 수출에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Mun-Seong
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.297-315
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we explore the effects of export insurance on the Korea's export by using the gravity model with the data of 112 countries that Korea exports on years of 2005 and 2009. For this model, we used the Korea export as a dependent variables and real GDP, distance between the two nations, export insurance, country credit rating of the Korea's counterpart countries and FTA were used as an independent variables. The results show that the underwriting performance of the export insurance and the sovereign credit rating of the export counterpart countries have the positive impact on Korea's export. Also, the impact of the export insurance is more increasing to the Korea exportation but the importance of the economy size of the export counterpart countries decreased after 2008 global financial crisis. Particularly, the influence to the export by the sovereign credit rating has diminished in that period and this seems to be due to the export insurance has increased. These results imply that the export insurance plays an important role to promote the Korea's exportation since 2008 global recession. Especially, if the recession continues, then there will be more crippling impact to the small-mid size companies rather than large size companies. Therefore, Korea government should do their best to continuously expand the export insurance for the purpose of increasing Korea exportation, expecially to the small-mid size companies.

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An Empirical Study on the Estimate of Rational Real Estate Bubble in Korea (한국 부동산 시장의 합리적 버블 추정에 관한 실증연구)

  • Chun, Hae-Jung
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.147-159
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    • 2014
  • The present study was aimed to estimate the rational bubble by using the state space model and Kalman filter, of the national, capital, non-capital, Gangnam, and Gangbuk regions housing sales price from November 2003 to August 2013, for the whole period, and before and after the global financial crisis. For the whole period, Gangnam marked the highest rational bubble of 25.4%, followed by Gangbuk 21.3%, capital region 20.1%, whole country 18.9%, and non-capital region 14.3%. Prior to the global financial crisis, Gangnam showed 26.7% of bubble, which is approximately 7.4% higher than Gangbuk with 19.3%. On the other hand, after the global financial crisis, the bubble has collapsed a lot with Gangnam 13.2% and Gangbuk 10.7%; however, the non-capital region showed rather an increase of about 15% from 4.2% before the crisis to 9.0% after the crisis. The main cause of this is that the trading price has declined but the rents have risen in the capital region including Gangnam and Gangbuk, while the transaction price has gone up in non-capital region due to various positive signs like the moving of public institutions.

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The Impact of Ownership Structure on the Operating Performance of Ship Financial Institutions (선박금융기관의 소유구조와 경영성과 분석)

  • Ji, Moonjin;Lee, Kihwan;Kim, Kanghyeok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.187-207
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the business performance difference based on the ownership structure type in the aspect of profitability and stability. In order to conduct this analysis in two aspects, the ship financial institutions have been classified into two groups: state-owned banks and private-owned banks. First of all, the difference of ROE and ROA between private and public ship financial institutions is statistically significant, but no difference has been shown in terms of stability measured through BIS capital adequacy ratio. Second, to test the business performance difference according to the ownership structure types before and after the global financial crisis, we examined the outcome difference in the ship financial institutions in terms of profitability and stability. However, in the event that the analysis was conducted with public and private financial institutions, the business outcome difference before and after the global financial crisis has been shown in the sector of private financial institutions, but has not been shown in the sector of public financial institutions. It is meaningful that this study is the first work which examined the difference of the operating performance by the ownership structure types of ship financial institutions. However, it is noted that small sample for this empirical study is a limitation of this thesis.