A case study for alternative methods of election forecasting

선거예측의 대안적 방법에 대한 사례연구

  • Ryu, Jea-Bok (Department of Statistics, College of Science & Engineering, Cheongju University)
  • Received : 2020.05.12
  • Accepted : 2020.05.22
  • Published : 2020.08.31


We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.

본 연구에서는 제19대 대통령선거와 제7회 전국동시지방선거(광역단체장선거) 여론조사자료를 이용해서 후보지지율, 당선가능성 및 정당지지율의 관계를 비교, 분석하였다. 사례연구결과 당선가능성과 정당지지율을 이용해서 당선자를 예측하는 대안적 방법이 선거예측의 정확성을 높일 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.



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