DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Does the ICT Investment of Firms Create Jobless Growth?

기업의 ICT투자가 '고용 없는 성장'을 이끄는가?

  • 심재윤 (한양대학교 일반대학원 경영학과) ;
  • 이종호 (서울대학교 대학혁신센터) ;
  • 박수호 (한국산업기술진흥원 기술전략팀) ;
  • 정우진 (연세대학교 정보대학원 바른ICT연구소)
  • Received : 2019.03.21
  • Accepted : 2019.08.15
  • Published : 2019.09.30

Abstract

Jobless Growth, one of the most issue keywords for Korea's economy at this moment, stands for an economic situation where the unemployment rate once edging up at the downturn does not fall sharply even after a business cycle is on the stage of its recovery. A remarkable progress of ICT has intensified the apprehension of technology displacing human labor. A remarkable progress of ICT has intensified the apprehension of technology displacing human labor historically. Nowadays, ICT as the main cause for recent jobless growth in Korea ends up with pointing out. This study is to investigate whether the ICT leads to an economic situation of jobless growth. We served an empirical analysis using firm-level panel data from 2009 to 2013 and estimated the effects of ICT on both firm's employment and productivity. A result suggests not only does the employment increase with the rise of ICT investment, but also the employment becomes a complete mediator in terms of linking ICT and firm's productivity. It turns out to be a groundless fear that the ICT rules out human labor causing jobless growth for Korea's economy according to the result revealed.

References

  1. 고상원, 전병유, 이경남, 임순옥, 오정숙 2007. IT와 고용창출, 서울: 정보통신정책연구원.
  2. 김병수, 한인구 2012. "R&D 조직의 지식 경영 활동이 R&D 성과에 미치는 영향," 지식경영연구 (13:1), pp. 25-39.
  3. 박재민, 전주용 2009. "투입산출 구조분해분석을 바탕으로 본 우리나라 정보통신산업의 고용구조 변화," 응용경제 (10:1), pp. 5-29.
  4. 방형준 2018. "고용없는 성장," 국제노동브리프 (16:7), pp. 35-42.
  5. 서정문, 이기세, 전성일 2011. "특허권과 이익지속계수에 따른 연구개발비 지출이 기업가치에 미치는 영향," 지식경영연구 (12:3), pp. 59-71.
  6. 이기봉, 김영숙 2006. "체육분야의 인과관계 연구에서 매개변인의 효과검증," 체육과학연구 (17:3), pp. 33-34.
  7. 이영수, 서환주 2000. 美國經濟의 最近好況에 있어서 IT와 金融化의 役割, 지역연구화시리즈 00-04, 서울: 대외 경제정책연구원(KIEP).
  8. 전성일, 이기세, 양해면 2010. "산업 특성에 따른 연구개발비 지출과 특허취득이 기업가치에 차별적으로 반응하는가?," 지식경영연구 (11:3), pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.15813/KMR.2010.11.3.001
  9. 정우진, 김현석, 조신 2019. "ICT 산업의 R&D 투자가 타 산업에 미치는 파급효과 측정," 지식경영연구 (20:1), pp. 27-43. https://doi.org/10.15813/kmr.2019.20.1.002
  10. 한국개발연구원 2005. 산업별 생산 및 취업계수 중장기전망: 2005-2020, 서울: 한국개발연구원.
  11. 홍효진, 홍필기, 이영수 2010. "IT투자가 노동수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구," 정보화정책 (17:4), pp. 44-60.
  12. Autor, D. H. 2015. "Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives (29:3), pp. 3-30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.3.3
  13. Atasoy, H., Banker, R. D. and Pavlou, P. A. 2016. "On the longitudinal effects of IT use on firm-Level employment," Information Systems Research (27:1), pp. 6-26. https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2015.0618
  14. Baron, R. M. and Kenny, D. A. 1986. "The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations," Journal of personality and social psychology (51:6), pp. 1173-1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173
  15. Berndt, E. R., Morrison, C. J. and Rosenblum, L. S. 1992. "High-tech capital formation and labor composition in US manufacturing industries: an exploratory analysis," NBER Working Paper, No. w4010.
  16. Berman, E., Bound, J. and Griliches, Z. 1994. "Changes in the demand for skilled labor within US manufacturing: evidence from the annual survey of manufactures," The Quarterly Journal of Economics (109:2), pp. 367-397. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118467
  17. Brouwer, E., Kleinknecht, A. and Reijnen, J. O. N. 1993. "Employment growth and innovation at the firm level," Journal of Evolutionary Economics (3:2), pp. 153-159. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01213832
  18. Brynjolfsson, E., Malone, T. W. and Kambil, A. 1994. "Does information technology lead to smaller firms?," Management science (40:12), pp. 1628-1644. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.12.1628
  19. Brynjolfsson, E. and McAfee, A. 2012. "Race against the machine: How the digital revolution is accelerating innovation, driving productivity, and irreversibly transforming employment and the economy," Digital Frontier Press, Lexington, MA.
  20. Dewan, S., & Min, C. 1997. "The substitution of information technology for other factors of production: A firm level analysis," Management science (43:12), pp. 1660-1675. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.12.1660
  21. Doms, M., Dunne, T. and Roberts, M. J. 1995. "The role of technology use in the survival and growth of manufacturing plants," International journal of industrial organization (13:4), pp. 523-542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-7187(95)00503-X
  22. Groshen, E. L. and Potter, S. 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance (9:8).
  23. Harrison, R., Jaumandreu, J., Mairesse, J., and Peters, B. 2014. "Does innovation st imu late employment? A f irm-level analysis using comparable micro-data from four European countries," International Journal of Industrial Organization (35), pp. 29-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2014.06.001
  24. Mokyr, J., Vickers, C., and Ziebarth, N. L. 2015. "The history of technological anxiety and the future of economic growth: Is this time different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives (29:3), pp. 31-50. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.3.31
  25. Oliner, S. D. and Sichel, D. E. 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Journal of economic perspectives (14:4), pp. 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.4.3
  26. Osterman, P. 1986. "The Impact of Computers on the Employment of Clerks and Managers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review (39:2), pp. 175-186. https://doi.org/10.1177/001979398603900201
  27. Parsons, D. J., Gotlieb, C. C. and Denny, M. 1993. "Productivity and computers in Canadian banking," Productivity Issues in Services at the Micro Level, pp. 91-109.
  28. Peters, B. 2015. "Employment effects of Different Innovation Activities: Microeconometric Evidence," ZEW-Center for European Economic Research Discussion Paper, pp. 04-73.
  29. Preacher, K. J. and Hayes, A. F. 2004. "SPSS and SAS procedures for estimating indirect ef fects in simple mediat ion models," Behavior research methods, instruments, & computers (36:4), pp. 717-731. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03206553
  30. Riffkin, J. 2005. 저.이영호역, 노동의종말, 민음사
  31. Sobel, M. E. 1982. "Asymptotic confidence intervals for indirect effects in structural equations models, " Sociological methodology (13), pp. 290-312. https://doi.org/10.2307/270723
  32. Solow, R. M. 1986. "Unemployment: getting the questions right," Economica (53:210), pp. S23-S34. https://doi.org/10.2307/2554372
  33. Wehmeyer, M. L., Palmer, S. B., Smith, S. J., Parent, W., Davies, D. K. and Stock, S. 2006. "Technology use by people with intellectual and developmental disabilities to support employment activities: A singlesubject design meta-analysis," Journal of Vocational Rehabilitation (24:2), pp. 81-86.
  34. Wooldridge, J. M. 2015. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, Nelson Education.