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An analysis of the causality between international oil price and skipjack tuna price

국제 유가 변동과 원양선망어업 가다랑어 가격 간의 인과성 분석

  • JO, Heon-Ju (Distant Water Fisheries Resources Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science) ;
  • KIM, Do-Hoon (Department of Marine & Fisheries Business and Economics, Pukyong National University) ;
  • KIM, Doo-Nam (Distant Water Fisheries Resources Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science) ;
  • LEE, Sung-Il (Distant Water Fisheries Resources Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science) ;
  • LEE, Mi-Kyung (Distant Water Fisheries Resources Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science)
  • 조헌주 (국립수산과학원 원양자원과) ;
  • 김도훈 (부경대학교 해양수산경영학과) ;
  • 김두남 (국립수산과학원 원양자원과) ;
  • 이성일 (국립수산과학원 원양자원과) ;
  • 이미경 (국립수산과학원 원양자원과)
  • Received : 2019.06.20
  • Accepted : 2019.07.05
  • Published : 2019.08.31

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between international oil price as a fuel cost in overseas fisheries and skipjack tuna price as a part of main products in overseas fisheries using monthly time series data from 2008 to 2017. The study also tried to analyze the change of fishing profits by fuel cost. For a time series analysis, this study conducted both the unit-root test for stability of data and the Johansen cointegration test for long-term equilibrium relations among variables. In addition, it used not only the Granger causality test to examine interactions among variables, but also the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to estimate statistical impacts among variables used in the model. Results of this study are as follows. First, each data on variables was not found to be stationary from the ADF unit-root test and long-term equilibrium relations among variables were not found from a Johansen cointegration test. Second, the Granger causality test showed that the international oil prices would directly cause changes in skipjack tuna prices. Third, the VAR model indicated that the posterior t-2 period change of international oil price would have an statistically significant effect on changes of skipjack tuna prices. Finally, fishing profits from skipjack would be decreased by 0.06% if the fuel cost increases by 1%.

Keywords

International oil price;Skipjack price;VAR model;Overseas fisheries;Granger causality

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국립수산과학원

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