서해 어획대상 잠재생산량 추정을 위한 자원평가모델의 비교 분석

Comparative analysis of stock assessment models for analyzing potential yield of fishery resources in the West Sea, Korea

  • 최민제 (부경대학교 대학원 해양수산경영학과) ;
  • 김도훈 (부경대학교 해양수산경영학과) ;
  • 최지훈 (국립수산과학원 연근해자원과)
  • CHOI, Min-Je (Department of Marine & Fisheries Business and Economics, Graduate school, Pukyong National University) ;
  • KIM, Do-Hoon (Department of Marine & Fisheries Business and Economics, Pukyong National University) ;
  • CHOI, Ji-Hoon (Coastal Water Fisheries Resources Research Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science)
  • 투고 : 2019.05.22
  • 심사 : 2019.07.30
  • 발행 : 2019.08.31


This study is aimed to compare stock assessment models depending on how the models fit to observed data. Process-error model, Observation-error model, and Bayesian state-space model for the Korean Western coast fisheries were applied for comparison. Analytical results show that there is the least error between the estimated CPUE and the observed CPUE with the Bayesian state-space model; consequently, results of the Bayesian state-space model are the most reliable. According to the Bayesian State-space model, potential yield of fishery resources in the West Sea of Korea is estimated to be 231,949 tons per year. However, the results show that the fishery resources of West Sea have been decreasing since 1967. In addition, the amounts of stock in 2013 are assessed to be only 36% of the stock biomass at MSY level. Therefore, policy efforts are needed to recover the fishery resources of West Sea of Korea.


State-space model;Bayesian inference;Observation-error model;Surplus production model;Maximum sustainable yield


연구 과제 주관 기관 : 영남씨그랜트센터


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