DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Prospect of Climate Changes for the Mid and Late 21st Century Using RegCM4.0 over CORDEX II East Asian Region

RegCM4.0을 활용한 CORDEX II 동아시아 지역의 21C 중·후반 기후 변화 전망

Kim, Tae-Jun;Suh, Myoung-Seok;Chang, Eun-Chul
김태준;서명석;장은철

  • Received : 2019.03.28
  • Accepted : 2019.06.10
  • Published : 2019.06.30

Abstract

In this study, the regional climate model, RegCM4.0 (25 km), with the HadGEM2-AO data as boundary conditions, was used to simulate the mean climate changes in the mid and late 21st century for CORDEX Phase 2 East Asian region. 122 years (1979~2100) of simulation were performed, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for the simulation of future climate. In the mid-21st century, the temperature is expected to increase by about 0.5 to $3.0^{\circ}C$ in all regions of East Asia, regardless of season and scenario. The increase in temperature is greater in summer and winter, especially in the northern part of simulation domain. Interannual variability (IAV) is expected to decrease by 25% in summer for RCP 8.5, while it is expected to increase by more than 30% in autumn for both scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, the precipitation in South Korea is expected to increase in late June but decrease in mid-July, with an increase in precipitation greater than $100mm\;day^{-1}$. In RCP 4.5 of the late 21st century, relatively uniform temperature increase ($1.0{\sim}2.5^{\circ}C$) is expected throughout the continent, while RCP 8.5 shows a very diverse increase ($3.0{\sim}6.0^{\circ}C$) depending on season and geographical location. In addition, the IAV of temperature is expected to decrease by more than 35% in both scenarios in the summer. In most of the Northwest Pacific region, precipitation is expected to decrease in all seasons except for the summer, but in South Korea, it is projected to increase by about 10% in all seasons except autumn.

Keywords

CORDEX II-East Asia;RegCM4.0;regional climate changes;RCP4.5/8.5;mid and late 21st century

References

  1. Ahn, J.-B., Y.-W. Choi, and S. Jo, 2018: Evaluation of reproduced precipitation by WRF in the Region of CORDEX-East Asia phase 2. Atmosphere, 28, 85-97, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2018.28.1.085 (in Korean with English abstract).
  2. Baek, H.-J., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 603-618, doi:10.1007/s13143-013-0053-7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-013-0053-7
  3. Cha, D.-H., and D.-K. Lee, 2009: Reduction of systematic errors in regional climate simulations of the summer monsoon over East Asia and the western North Pacific by applying the spectral nudging technique. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D14108, doi:10.1029/2008JD011176. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011176
  4. Choi, Y.-W., and J.-B. Ahn, 2017: Impact of cumulus parameterization schemes on the regional climate simulation for the domain of CORDEX-East Asia phase 2 using WRF model. Atmosphere, 27, 105-118, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2017.27.1.105 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2017.27.1.105
  5. Eyring, V., S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2016: Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
  6. Flato, G., and Coauthors, 2013: Evaluation of Climate Models. In T. F. Stocker et al. Eds., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 741-866.
  7. Fu, C., and Coauthors, 2005: Regional climate model intercomparison project for Asia. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 257-266. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-2-257
  8. Gao, X.-J., Y. Shi, and F. Giorgi, 2016: Comparison of convective parameterizations in RegCM4 experiments over China with CLM as the land surface model. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 9, 246-254, doi:10.1080/16742834.2016.1172938. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2016.1172938
  9. Giorgi, F., and Coauthors, 2012: RegCM4: Model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim. Res., 52, 7-29, doi: 10.3354/cr01018. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01018
  10. Gu, H., G. Wang, Z. Yu, and R. Mei, 2012: Assessing future climate changes and extreme indicators in east and south Asia using the RegCM4 regional climate model. Climatic Change, 114, 301-317, doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0411-y. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0411-y
  11. ICTP, 2010: RegCM4. [Available online at https://www.ictp.it/research/esp/models/regcm4.aspx].
  12. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1009 pp.
  13. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change, 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups, I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team et al. Eds., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
  14. Jacob, D., and Coauthors, 2007: An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Climatic Change, 81, 31-52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9213-4
  15. Kharin, V. V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and M. Wehner, 2013: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change, 119, 345-357, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8
  16. Kim, C., and M.-S. Suh, 2009: Change-point and change pattern of precipitation characteristic using Bayesian method over South Korea from 1954 to 2007. Atmosphere, 19, 199-211 (in Korean with English abstract).
  17. Kim, T.-J., M.-S. Suh, and S.-G. Oh, 2017: Impact of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes on the simulation skills of RegCM4.0 over CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2 domain. J. Clim. Res., 12, 181-197 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2017.12.2.181
  18. Kim, Y., Y.-H. Kim, N. Kim, Y.-J. Lim, and B.-J. Kim, 2016: Variability of wind energy in Korea using regional climate model ensemble projection, Atmosphere, 26, 373-386, doi: 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.3.373 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.3.373
  19. Kimoto, M., 2005: Simulated change of the East Asian circulation under global warming scenario. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16701, doi:10.1029/2005 GL023383. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023383
  20. KMA, 2012: Assessment of uncertainties in regional climate models and prediction of detailed regional climate change over Korea. Korea Meteorological Administration, 518 pp [Available online at http://www.ndsl.kr/ndsl/search/detail/report/reportSearchResultDetail.do?cn=TRKO201200000815&SITE=CLICK] (in Korean).
  21. KMA, 2018: Production and analysis of fine-scale climate change over the Korean Peninsula and East Asia based on RCP scenario. Korea Meteorological Administration, 946 pp (in Korean).
  22. Kwon, W.-T., 2005: Current status and perspective of climate change sciences. J. Korean Meteor. Soc., 41, 325-336 (in Korean with English abstract).
  23. Lee, J.-W., S.-Y. Hong, E.-C. Chang, M.-S. Suh, and H.-S. Kang, 2014: Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP. Clim. Dyn., 42, 733-747, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1841-6. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1841-6
  24. Meehl, G. A., F. Zwiers, J. Evans, T. Knutson, L. Mearns, and P. Whetton, 2000: Trends in extreme weather and climate events: Issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 427-436. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:TIEWAC>2.3.CO;2
  25. Myoung, J.-S., and M.-S. Suh, 2010: Characteristics by the cloud-to-ground lightning polarity occurred over South Korea. J. Korean Earth Sci. Soc., 31, 335-347, doi:10.5467/JKESS.2010.31.4.335 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2010.31.4.335
  26. Oh, S.-G., and M.-S. Suh, 2013: Projection of fine-scale climate changes over South Korea based on the RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) scenarios using RegCM4. J. Clim. Res., 8, 291-307, doi:10.14383/cri.2013.8.4.291 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2013.8.4.291
  27. Oh, S.-G., and M.-S. Suh, 2017: Dynamic downscaling of current climate (1981-2005) over CORDEX-East Asia phase 2 domain using RegCM4.0. J. Clim. Res., 12, 87-109, doi:10.14383/cri.2017.12.1.87 (in Korean with English abstract). https://doi.org/10.14383/cri.2017.12.1.87
  28. Oh, S.-G., J.-H. Park, S.-H. Lee, and M.-S. Suh, 2014: Assessment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios. J. Geophys. Res., 119, 2913-2927, doi:10.1002/2013JD020693.
  29. Park, C. Y., Y. E. Choi, Y. A. Kwon, J. I. Kwon, and H. S. Lee, 2013: Studies on changes and future projections of subtropical climate zones and extreme temperature events over South Korea using high resolution climate change scenario based on PRIDE model. J. Korean Asso. Reg. Geogr., 19, 600-614 (in Korean with English abstract).
  30. Park, T.-W., J.-W. Heo, J.-H. Jeong, and C.-H. Ho, 2017: Characteristics of East Asian cold surges in the CMIP5 climate models. Atmosphere, 27, 199-211, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2017.27.2.199 (in Korean with English abstract).
  31. Suh, M.-S., S.-G. Oh, D.-K. Lee, D.-H. Cha, S.-J. Choi, C.-S. Jin, and S.-Y. Hong, 2012: Development of new ensemble methods based on the performance skills of regional climate models over South Korea. J. Climate, 25, 7067-7082, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00457.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00457.1
  32. Suh, M.-S., and Coauthors, 2016: Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multipleregional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: Surface air temperature. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 151-169, doi:10.1007/s13143-016-0017-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-016-0017-9
  33. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
  34. van der Linden, P., and J. F. B. Mitchell, 2009: ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre Tech. Rep., 160 pp.
  35. von Storch, H., H. Langenberg, and F. Feser, 2000: A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3664-3673. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<3664:ASNTFD>2.0.CO;2
  36. Wang, S.-Y., R. R. Gillies, E. S. Takle, and W. J. Gutowski Jr., 2009: Evaluation of precipitation in the intermountain region as simulated by the NARCCAP regional climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11704, doi:10.1029/2009GL037930. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037930
  37. Yatagai, A., K. Kamiguchi, O. Arakawa, A. Hamada, N. Yasutomi, and A. Kitoh, 2012: APHRODITE: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1401-1415, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1
  38. Yoon, H.-J., H.-J. Kim, and I.-H. Yoon, 2006: On the study of the seasonality precipitation over South Korea. J. Korean Earth Sci. Soc., 27, 149-158 (in Korean with English abstract).

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 한국기상산업기술원