Analysis of Effects of Multiple Environmental Factors on Early Life-history for Growth and Stress Accumulation Using a Dynamic-state-dependent Model

동적상태의존모델을 이용하여 복합적 환경영향이 어류의 초기 생활사에 미치는 영향 분석

  • 이후승 (한국환경정책.평가연구원)
  • Received : 2018.11.11
  • Accepted : 2018.12.16
  • Published : 2019.02.28


Environmental changes can affect life-history traits, such as growth rate and reproduction, and organisms adapt on a given environmental condition to maximize ecological fitness. This study shows the effects of water temperature and dissolved oxygen level on early growth and accumulated damage in fish using a dynamic-state-dependent model. I have hypothesized that the level of foraging activity is related to growth and stress and so the optimal level can maximize reproductive success - ultimately, fitness. The critical temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) is also defined as inducing the maximum growth rate at the level. So, the model predicts the highest growth rate at oxygen saturation and lower growth rate at lower or higher level of DO in water. Lower DO (i.e., hypoxia) causes slower growth rate through higher amount of accumulated stress whereas higher DO (i.e., hyperoxia) induces faster growth rate, but smaller body size. In addition, I show that there is lower impact when considering simple or independent environmental factors on environmental assessment. My findings suggest that multiple environmental factors as physiological ecology approach should be considered to improve impact assessment in environmental changes and a further study is needed to develop advanced assessment tools considering multiple environmental factors.

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Figure 2. Predicted somatic growth rate (mean±s.d.; SGR) in related to (a) temperature and (b) dissolved oxygen (TC, critical temperature; OC, oxygen saturation)

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Figure 3. Predicted (a) SGR and (b) accumulated damage in related to interaction between temperature and dissolvedoxygen (DO; white tringle-0.5, black circle-1, white square-1.5)

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Figure 4. Predicted body size at maturation in related to temperature and dissolved oxygen (white tringle- 0.5, black circle-1, white square-1.5)

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Figure 6. Relation between body size at maturation and accumulated damage. Symbols represent mean value in each treatment group

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Figure 1. (a) The four classes of growth trajectories produced by our modeling framework. (b) Frequencies of each growth trajectory. (c) Linear discriminant function analysis of the parameters and first-order parameter interactions associated with each type of growth trajectory. Trajectory types are indicated by the different marker types I-IV are indicated by the light grey circles, black circles, white circles, and dark grey circles, respectively.

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Figure 5. (a) Proportion of critical temperature in accumulated damage in related to dissolved oxygen and (b) proportion of normoxia in accumulated damage in related to temperature. Grey bar in (b) represents mean proportion among temperature treatment groups

Table 1. Summary of variables and parameters definitions and the range of values used in the simulation. Note that for the state variables and control, the range indicates the set of achievable values within the optimization routine. For the parameters, the range indicates the support over which values were drawn at random. Parentheses represents number of categories

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