A Study of Ex ante and Ex Post Evaluation on the Nakdonggang National Institute of Biological Resources based on CVM

낙동강생물자원관의 조건부가치추정 편익에 대한 사전 및 사후 결과 비교 및 정책적 시사점

  • Han, Taek-Whan (Department of Finance and Economics, SeoKyeong University) ;
  • Lim, Dongsoon (Department of Economics, Dong-Eui University)
  • 한택환 (서경대학교 금융경제학과) ;
  • 임동순 (동의대학교 경제학과)
  • Received : 2018.08.12
  • Accepted : 2018.10.14
  • Published : 2018.10.31

Abstract

Public investment is necessary for the facilities inducing social benefits. We may over-or underestimate the social benefit without considering major factors deciding benefits. This study attempts to analyze and to compare the ex ante and ex post estimation of social benefit on the Nak-dong River Biological Resource Center based on CVM. According to the ex ante estimation results, the WTP per household for the center is around 6176.6 won a year. Total annual WTP in Korea is estimated at 98,118 millions of won. Ex post visitors for the center is more than two times of ex ante estimation, mainly due to central and regional governments' efforts and change in preference for the environmental goods. It is, however, possible that the ex ante estimation would overestimate visitors because of the model. In benefit estimate, we need to consider changes in income per household, changes in demographic and households structure, preferences for the environmental amenity, and specification of regional range. In addition, we need to establish extended time-series data enough to analyze influential factors and to implement periodical evaluation of ex ante and ex post estimation for the public facilities.

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