Urban Flood Vulnerability and Risk Assessments for Applying to Urban Planning

도시계획 적용을 위한 도시홍수 취약성 및 리스크 평가

  • Lee, Sang-hyeok (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kang, Jung Eun (Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • Received : 2017.11.04
  • Accepted : 2018.08.08
  • Published : 2018.10.31


This study conducted two flood assessments and compared their methods, procedures, and outcomes for applying to urban planning: a flood vulnerability assessment in accordance with the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment adopted by the government and a probabilistic risk assessment stressed by IPCC. The flood vulnerability assessment employed the indicator method based on the manual and guidelines. The probabilistic risk was defined as a product of the probability of occurrence and its effect. It used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which is effective in random number generation and machine learning based on the Bayesian concept. The results of two evaluations focused on Busan show that while spatial distributions of risk areas are quite similar, risk area calculated by flood vulnerability assessment is a little larger than risk assessment due to different units of analysis, used data, and assessment methodology. Risk assessment provides more accurate results, but assessment method is complicated, while vulnerability assessment is easy to use, results cannot be quantitatively validated. Therefore, the combination of vulnerability and risk assessment is considered meaningful as it could improve existing flood assessments and contribute to decision making to establish safer cities.


Supported by : 환경부


  1. Kang, J. E., Eum, J. H., Bae, H. J., Choi, H. S., Lee, M. J., Kang, Y. W., Park, J. C., 2012, Green Infrastructure Strategy for Urban Climate Adaptation, Sejong: Korea Environment Institute.
  2. Kang, J. E., Lee, M. J., 2015. "Analysis of urban infrastructure risk areas to flooding using neural network in Seoul", Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 35(4): 997-1006.
  3. Koh, J.K., Kim, H.S., 2009, A Study on Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change in Gyeonggi-Do. Suwon: Gyeonggi Research Institute.
  4. National Institute of Korean Language, "Standard Korean Language Dictionary",
  5. National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 2011. Climate Change Scenario Report for Response to IPCC AR5. Jeju.
  6. National Institute of Environmental Research and Ministry of Environment, 2012. Climate change vulnerability map of each impact sector to establish climate change adaptation implementation plan for local governments, Incheon
  7. Ministry of Public Safety and Security, 2011. Disasters Report, Sejong.
  8. Ministry of Public Safety and Security, 2014. Disasters Report, Sejong.
  9. Ministry of Public Safety and Security, 2015. Disasters Report, Sejong.
  10. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, 2013. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment manual, Sejong.
  11. Kim D. H., 2013. Bayesian Statistics using R and WinBUGS, Paju: FreeAcademy.
  12. Kim, D. H., 2015. "Risk Assessment and Classification for Climate Change Adaptation: Application on the Method of Climate Change Risk Assessment in the UK", Journal of environmental policy, 14(1): 53-83.
  13. Kim, J. S., Sung, H. H., Choi, G. Y., 2013. "Spatial Patterns of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Seoul", Journal of the Korean Association of Regional Geographers, 19(4): 615-626.
  14. Kim, J. S., Kim, H. Y., Lee, S. H., 2014. "A Review on Improvements of Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis Methods : Focusing on Sea Level Rise Disasters", Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, 17(1): 50-60.
  15. Kim, J. Y., Sung, S. Y., 2016. "Forecasting Possibility of Flood Occurrence in Suwon under Climate Change Applying Stochastic Simulation", Journal of Korea Planning Association, 51(2): 255-265.
  16. Kim, H. S., Park, G. J., Kim, S. D., Choi, M. H., Park, M. J., Yoon, J. Y., 2012. "Assessment of flood vulnerability considering climate change and large-scale river restoration project", Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 12(2): 107-113.
  17. Kim, H. M., Lee, D. G., Park, C., 2013. "A Study on Selection for Vulnerable Area of Urban Flooding Adaptable Capacity Using MaxEnt in Seoul", Journal of Korea Planning Association, 48(4): 205-217.
  18. Nam, G. H., 2014. "A Study on the Compound- Disaster Risk Assessment by Utilizing the Bayesian Network", Ph. D. Dissertation, Inje University.
  19. Myeong, S. J., Kim, J. Y., Shin, S. H., An, B. O., 2010. Assessing vulnerability to climate change of the physical infrastructure in Korea and developing adaptation strategies, Sejong: Korea Environment Institute.
  20. Park, M. J., Song, Y. S., Joo, J. G., Park, M. K., 2013. "A Study on Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment", Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 13(5): 297-305.
  21. Park, S. J., Lee, D. K., Sung, S. Y., Jung, T. Y., 2014, "Risk Assessment of Potential Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise Using Bayesian Network", Journal of Korea Planning Association, 49(2): 347-358.
  22. Park, C. S., Song, Y. I., Lee, S. H., Kim, Y. J., Byun, B. S., Chae, J. E., Park, S. Y., Kim, S. Y., Kim, J. A., Jung, M. S., Ahn, B. O., Lee, E. S.. 2014. Climate-environmental risks outlook and the national strategy(I). Sejong: Korea Environment Institute.
  23. Sim, W. B., 2013. A Study on Improving the Methods to Analyze Urban Disaster Vulnerability due to Climate Change, Sejong: Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements.
  24. Oh, M. S. 2012. Bayesian Statistical Inference with R-Monte Carlo. Paju: FreeAcademy.
  25. Yoo, G.Y., Kim, I.H., 2008. Development and application of a climate change vulnerability index, Sejong: Korea Environment Institute.
  26. Lee, M. J., Kang, J. E., 2012. "Predictive Flooded Area Susceptibility and Verification Using GIS and Frequency Ratio", Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, 15(2): 86-102.
  27. Lee, B. J., 2014. Supporting platform for the analysis of climate change driven disaster vulnerability in urban area, Sejong: Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements.
  28. Lee, S. H., Kang, J. E., Park, C. S., 2016, "Urban Flood Risk Assessment Considering Climate Change Using Bayesian Probability Statistics and GIS: A Case Study from Seocho-Gu, Seoul", Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, 19(4): 36-51.
  29. Choi, H. I., Park, S. Y., Song, J. H., Park, M. J., 2013. "Identification of Flood Risk Areas using a Multi-criteria Decision Making Method", Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 13(2): 237-243.
  30. Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 2017, Urban Planning & Disaster Prevention, Paju: Yeamoonsa press.
  31. Ministry of the Interior and Safety, 2016. Disasters Report, Sejong.
  32. ARMONIA, 2007, Assessing and mapping multiple risk for spatial planning: approaches, methodologies and tools in Europe. Italy.
  33. Bowering, E. A., Peck, A. M., Simonovic, S. P., 2014. "A flood risk assessment to municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part I-methodology". Urban Water Journal. 11(1): 20-30.
  34. CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, 2012. An integrated multi-risk framework: considering climate change impacts on African cities. Italy.
  35. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 2012. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Government report. UK.
  36. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 2012. Method for undertaking the CCRA Part II-detailed method for stage 3: Assess risk, UK.
  37. Downing, T. E., Butterfield, R., Cohen, S., Huq, S., Moss, R., Rahman, A., Sokona, Y., Stephen, L., 2001. Vulnerability Indices: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation, UNEP Policy Series, Nairobi: UNEP.
  38. Elisabeth Bowering et. al., 2011. City of London: Vulnerability of Infrastructure to Climate Change Final Report, London: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Western Ontario.
  39. FEMA, 2012. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation methodology Flood Model. HAZUS-MH MR3 Technical Manual, U.S.A:FEMA
  40. IPCC, 2007, Climate Change 2007: Impact, adaptation and vulnerability, UK: Cambridge university press.
  41. IPCC, 2014, Climate Change 2014: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability, UK: Cambridge university press.
  42. IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report Summary for Policy makers, UK: Cambridge university press.
  43. ISO/IEC 31010, 2009. Risk management : Risk assessment techniques. Geneva: ISO.
  44. Jones, R., Boer, R., 2003. Assessing current climate risks Adaptation Policy Framework: A Guide for Policies to Facilitate Adaptation to Climate Change, U.S.A: UNDP.
  45. Jones, R.N., Preston, B.L., 2011. "Adaptation and risk management", WIREs Climate Change 2(2): 296-308.
  46. Levina, E., Tirpak, D. 2006. Key Adaptation Concepts and Terms, OECD.
  47. Lissner, T. K., Holsten, A., Walther, C., Kropp, J.P., 2012. "Toward sectoral and standardised vulnerability assessment: the example of heatwave impacts on human health", Climate change, 112(3-4): 687-708.
  48. Moss et al., 2001. Vulnerability to climate change: a quantitative approach, Prepared for the US Department of Energy. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
  49. Smith, K., 2013. Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster 6th edition, US: Routledge.
  50. Subtil F., Rabilloud M., 2015. "An enhancement of ROC curves Made them clinically relevant for diagnostic-test comparison and optimal threshold determination", Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 68(7): 752-759.
  51. U.N. Department of Humanitarian Affairs, 1992. Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management, Geneva: United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs.
  52. UNDP, 2005. Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change: Developing strategies, policy and measure, U.S.A.: Cambridge University Press.
  53. UNESCO-IHE Institute for waster education, 2012. A Conceptual Framework for Comprehensive Assessment of Risk Prevention Measures: The KULTURisk framework (KR-FWK), Delft.
  54. Urban Land Institute, 2015. A guide for assessing climate change risk, DC.