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Analysis of extreme cases of climate change impact on watershed hydrology and flow duration in Geum river basin using SWAT and STARDEX

SWAT과 STARDEX를 이용한 극한 기후변화 사상에 따른 금강유역의 수문 및 유황분석

  • Kim, Yong Won (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Lee, Ji Wan (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Seong Joon (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • 김용원 (건국대학교 공과대학 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 이지완 (건국대학교 공과대학 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 김성준 (건국대학교 공과대학 사회환경플랜트공학과)
  • Received : 2018.07.31
  • Accepted : 2018.09.07
  • Published : 2018.10.31

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the climate change impact on watershed hydrology and flow duration in Geum River basin ($9,645.5km^2$) especially by extreme scenarios. The rainfall related extreme index, STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes) was adopted to select the future extreme scenario from the 10 GCMs with RCP 8.5 scenarios by four projection periods (Historical: 1975~2005, 2020s: 2011~2040, 2050s: 2041~2070, 2080s: 2071~2100). As a result, the 5 scenarios of wet (CESM1-BGC and HadGEM2-ES), normal (MPI-ESM-MR), and dry (INM-CM4 and FGOALS-s2) were selected and applied to SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The wet scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2080s period. The 2080s evapotranspiration (ET) of wet scenarios varied from -3.2 to +3.1 mm, the 2080s total runoff (TR) varied from +5.5 to +128.4 mm. The dry scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2020s period. The 2020s ET for dry scenarios varied from -16.8 to -13.3 mm and the TR varied from -264.0 to -132.3 mm respectively. For the flow duration change, the CFR (coefficient of flow regime, Q10/Q355) was altered from +4.2 to +10.5 for 2080s wet scenarios and from +1.7 to +2.6 for 2020s dry scenarios. As a result of the flow duration analysis according to the change of the hydrological factors of the Geum River basin applying the extreme climate change scenario, INM-CM4 showed suitable scenario to show extreme dry condition and FGOALS-s2 showed suitable scenario for the analysis of the drought condition with large flow duration variability. HadGEM2-ES was evaluated as a scenario that can be used for maximum flow analysis because the flow duration variability was small and CESM1-BGC was evaluated as a scenario that can be applied to the case of extreme flood analysis with large flow duration variability.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국토교통과학기술진흥원

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