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A Study on the Model for Determining Cultivation Quantities of the Abalone

전복 양성물량 결정모형에 관한 연구

  • Choi, Se-Hyun (Department of Food and Resource Economics, Pusan National University) ;
  • Cho, Jae-Hwan (Department of Food and Resource Economics, Pusan National University)
  • 최세현 (부산대학교 식품자원경제학과) ;
  • 조재환 (부산대학교 식품자원경제학과)
  • Received : 2018.05.23
  • Accepted : 2018.08.03
  • Published : 2018.08.31

Abstract

Abalone aquacultural industry has been growing rapidly in a short period of time, however, there has been just a few researches related to the forecast of the supply, demand and price. Even the models developed by these researches have problems of low compatibility and reliability. To resolve these problem, a biological supply model needs to be developed that maintains time difference and linkage among the quantity of juvenile abalone into the plots, quantity of cultivation, quantity of shipment, and at the same time juvenile abalone is transplanted into the plot, matured and shipped by the expected market price. This study focus on the development of the model for determining quantity of the abalone cultivation, which is the core part of the entire abalone demand and supply model. Key factors that affect cultivation quantity were identified and verified the causal relationship among these variables and cultivation quantity. It turned out that the quantity of juvenile abalone transplanted and the relative price(the abalone price of the place of produce divided by the brown seaweed price) have a great influence on the cultivation quantity. Also, the similarity of the variation for the cultivation quantity of the observed value and the forecasted value implies that the model developed in this study has a high compatibility.

Keywords

Abalone Cultivation;Demand and Supply;Forecast;Marine Products;Model Development

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 부산대학교

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