Economic Impacts of Invasive Pests under Climate Change: A Case of Lycorma delicatula

기후변화에 따른 미발생 병해충 피해 경제적 영향 분석: Lycorma delicatula의 사례를 중심으로

  • Received : 2018.04.13
  • Accepted : 2018.07.06
  • Published : 2018.07.31


Lycorma delicatula, known as spotted lanternfly, is a planthopper native to Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, India and South China. This species damages local fruit trees and has spread rapidly in South Korea in recent years. The purpose of this study is to present the methods and estimation results pertaining to the risk of invasive species like Lycorma delicatula. We used a partial budget (PB) method to assess direct income reduction of farm households and a partial equilibrium (PE) model to examine social welfare change from the outbreak of Lycorma delicatula. We also estimated the future economic impacts of Lycorma delicatula under various climate scenarios considering habitat suitability. As climate change progresses, domestic ecosystems are expected to become increasingly vulnerable to pest outbreaks leading to further economic damage. We believe that this study can be a base to evaluate efficiency of the national pest control and quarantine system.

Lycorma delicatula는 꽃매미로 알려져 있으며, 베트남, 인도, 남중국과 같은 동남아시아의 토착 해충이다. 꽃매미는 한국에 유입되어 최근 몇 년간 급속히 퍼져 특히 과일 나무에 피해를 입히고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 Lycorma delicatula의 사례를 이용하여 미발생 병해충 영향 분석을 위한 연구방법과 추정 결과를 제시하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 Lycorma delicatula 발생으로 인한 농가의 직접소득감소를 측정하기 위해 부분예산(partial budget) 방법을 사용하였고, 해충 발생으로 인한 사회후생 변화를 조사하기 위해 부분균형(partial equilibrium) 모형을 사용하였다. 또한 병해충 발생 적합도를 고려한 다양한 기후 시나리오 하에서 Lycorma delicatula 발생 위험이 농가소득에 미치는 영향을 추정하였다. 기후변화가 지속됨에 따라 국내 생태계는 점점 돌발 외래 병해충에 취약해질 것으로 예상되며, 이에 따른 경제적 피해는 더욱 증가할 것으로 전망된다. 나아가 이 연구는 향후 국가 해충 방제 및 검역 시스템의 효율성 평가의 기반이 될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.



Supported by : 농림축산검역본부


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