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A study on the estimation of potential yield for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM)

통합생산량분석법에 의한 한국 서해 어획대상 잠재생산량 추정 연구

  • KIM, Hyun-A (Fishereis Resources Management Division, National Institute of Fishers Science) ;
  • SEO, Yong-Il (Fishereis Resources Management Division, National Institute of Fishers Science) ;
  • CHA, Hyung Kee (Fishereis Resources Management Division, National Institute of Fishers Science) ;
  • KANG, Hee-Joong (Fishereis Resources Management Division, National Institute of Fishers Science) ;
  • ZHANG, Chang-Ik (Divison of Marine Production System Management, Pukyong National University)
  • 김현아 (국립수산과학원 연근해자원과) ;
  • 서영일 (국립수산과학원 연근해자원과) ;
  • 차형기 (국립수산과학원 연근해자원과) ;
  • 강희중 (국립수산과학원 연근해자원과) ;
  • 장창익 (부경대학교 해양생산시스템관리학부)
  • Received : 2017.01.25
  • Accepted : 2018.01.10
  • Published : 2018.02.28

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate potential yield (PY) for Korean west coast fisheries using the holistic production method (HPM). HPM involves the use of surplus production models to apply input data of catch and standardized fishing efforts. HPM compared the estimated parameters of the surplus production from four different models: the Fox model, CYP model, ASPIC model, and maximum entropy model. The PY estimates ranged from 174,232 metric tons (mt) using the CYP model to 238,088 mt using the maximum entropy model. The highest coefficient of determination ($R^2$), the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), and the lowest Theil's U statistic (U) for Korean west coast fisheries were obtained from the maximum entropy model. The maximum entropy model showed relatively better fits of data, indicating that the maximum entropy model is statistically more stable and accurate than other models. The estimate from the maximum entropy model is regarded as a more reasonable estimate of PY. The quality of input data should be improved for the future study of PY to obtain more reliable estimates.

Keywords

Potential yield;Carrying capacity;Korean west coast fisheries;Stock assessment;Holistic production method

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국립수산과학원

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