# Smart Air Condition Load Forecasting based on Thermal Dynamic Model and Finite Memory Estimation for Peak-energy Distribution

• Received : 2016.12.02
• Accepted : 2017.09.26
• Published : 2018.03.01

#### Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new load forecasting method for smart air conditioning (A/C) based on the modified thermodynamics of indoor temperature and the unbiased finite memory estimator (UFME). Based on modified first-order thermodynamics, the dynamic behavior of indoor temperature can be described by the time-domain state-space model, and an accurate estimate of indoor temperature can be achieved by the proposed UFME. In addition, a reliable A/C load forecast can be obtained using the proposed method. Our study involves the experimental validation of the proposed A/C load forecasting method and communication construction between DR server and HEMS in a test bed. Through experimental data sets, the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method is validated.

#### Acknowledgement

Supported by : KEIT, Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning

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