Study on the prediction of the stopping probabilities in case of train fire in tunnel by Monte Carlo simulation method

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에 의한 화재열차의 터널 내 정차확률 예측에 관한 연구

  • Received : 2017.11.20
  • Accepted : 2017.12.26
  • Published : 2018.01.31


The safety of tunnels is quantified by quantitative risk assessment when planning the disaster prevention facilities of railway tunnels, and it is decided whether they are appropriate. The purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of the train stopping in the tunnels at train fire, which has a significant effect on the results of quantitative risk assessment for tunnel fires. For this purpose, a model was developed to calculate the coasting distance of the train considering the coefficient of train running resistance. The probability of stopping in case of train fire in the tunnel is predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation method with the coasting distance and the emergency braking distance as parameters of the tunnel lengths and slopes, train initial driving speeds. The kinetic equations for predicting the coasting distance were analyzed by reflecting the coefficient train running resistance of KTX II. In the case of KTX II trains, the coasting distance is reduced as the slope increases in a tunnel with an upward slope, but it is possible to continue driving without stopping in a slope downward. The probability of the train stopping in the case of train fire in tunnel decreases as the train speed increases and the slope of the tunnel decreases. If human error is not taken into account, the probability that a high-speed train traveling at a speed of 250 km/h or above will stop in a tunnel due to a fire is 0% when the slope of the tunnel is 0.5% or less, and the probability of stopping increases rapidly as the tunnel slope increases and the tunnel length increases.


Grant : 고수압 초장대 해저터널 기술자립을 위한 핵심요소 기술개발

Supported by : 건설교통과학기술진흥원


  1. Andrews, H.I. (1986), Railway traction: the principles of mechanical and electrical railway traction, Elsevier, New York.
  2. Arkin, Y. (2002), "Using quantitative risk assessment (ARA) and cost benefit analysis (CBA) to prioritize fire and life safety risk reduction measures in old railway tunnels", Proceedings of the Commuter Rail/Rail Transit Conference, Baltimore, Maryland.
  3. Beard, A., Carvel, R. (2005), The handbook of tunnel fire safety, 2nd Ed., ICE Publishing, London, UK, pp.555-587.
  4. Broder, B. (1999), "Risk based design of long railway tunnel up to 20 km length", Proceedings of the Long Road and Rail Tunnel, Independent Technical Conferences, Basel, Switzerland, pp.173-182.
  5. Choi, W.I., Choi, J.H., Moon, Y.O., Kim, S.H., Yoo, H.S. (2008), "Review on the detailed standards for quantitative risk analysis in high speed railway tunnels", Tunnel and Underground Space, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 393-407.
  6. Jong, J.C. (2003), "Analytical solutions for predicting train coasting dynamics", Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 4, pp.91-103.
  7. KORAIL (2016), "Large-scale accident field manual for high-speed railway", Deajeon, KOREA.
  8. Kwon, H.B., Kim, S.W., Kim, Y.G., Park, C.S. (2007), "A prediction of the equation of resistance to motion for Korean high-speed train", Proceedings of the Korean Society for Railway Conference, Seoul, Korea, pp. 1-7.
  9. Mann, P. (2005), Fire risk assessment study for a high speed train, PMSC Limited Paper on Generic Approach to Fire QRA for High Speed Trains, UK, pp. 1-23.
  10. Park, S. C. (2009), A study on high speed high speed propulsion control system (commissioned report), Korea Railroad Research Institute, Korea, pp. 29-34.
  11. UIC (2007), "TSI-high speed-safteyin tunnels-law-and-techn text-with annexes", Official Journal of the European Union.
  12. Vuchic, V.R. (1981), Urban Public Transportation: Systems and Technology, Prentice-Hall, Inc, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.
  13. Yoo, J.O. (2015), Designing the roadbed of the Seoul Metropolitan Expressway (Suseo-Pyeongtaek) - Designing a quantitative risk assessment standard, Korea Rail Network Authority, Daejein, Korea, pp. 1-115.
  14. Yun, S.H., Kwak, M.H., Nam, S.W., Oh, H.K., Kim, S.W. (2015), "Analysis and validation of a general expression for high-speed train resistance", Proceedings of the Korean Society for Railway Conference, pp. 166-171, Korean.