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Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Analysis Tool: Based on the Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Fires in Chungcheongnam-do

기후변화 취약성 평가 분석도구 개발에 관한 연구: 충남지역 산불 취약성을 중심으로

  • Yoon, Soo Hyang (Research Center for Climate Change, Chungnam Institute) ;
  • Lee, Sang Sin (Research Center for Climate Change, Chungnam Institute)
  • 윤수향 (충남연구원 기후변화대응연구센터) ;
  • 이상신 (충남연구원 기후변화대응연구센터)
  • Received : 2017.07.05
  • Accepted : 2017.09.22
  • Published : 2017.09.29

Abstract

Chungnam region has established and executed the 2nd Climate Change Adaptation Initiative Execution Plan (2017~2021) based on the Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth. The Execution Plan is established based on the results of climate change vulnerability assessment using the CCGIS, LCCGIS, and VESTAP analysis tools. However, the previously developed climate change vulnerability assessment tools (CCGIS, LCCGIS, VESTAP) cannot reflect the local records and the items and indices of new assessment. Therefore, this study developed a prototype of climate change vulnerability assessment analysis tool that, unlike the previous analysis tools, designs the items and indices considering the local characteristics and allows analysis of grid units. The prototype was used to simulate the vulnerability to forest fires of eight cities and seven towns in Chungcheongnam-do Province in the 2010s, 2020s, and 2050s based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 8.5 Scenario provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Based on the analysis, Chungcheongnam-do Province's vulnerability to forest fires in the 2010s was highest in Seocheon-gun (0.201), followed by Gyeryong-si (0.173) and Buyeo-gun (0.173) and the future prospects in the 2050s was highest in Seocheon-gun (0.179), followed by Gyeryong-si (0.169) and Buyeo-gun (0.154). The area with highest vulnerability to forest fires in Chungcheongnam-do Province was Biin-myeon, Seocheon-gun and the area may become most vulnerable was Pangyo-myeon, Seocheon-gun. The prototype and the results of analysis may be used to establish the directions and strategies in regards to the vulnerability to wild fires to secure each local government's 2nd execution plan and attainability.