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Accuracy Evaluation and Alert Level Setting for Real-time Cyanobacteria Measurement Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis

ROC 분석을 이용한 수질자동측정소 실시간 남조류 측정의 정확성 평가 및 경보기준 설정

  • Song, Sanghwan (Yeongsan River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Park, Jong-hwan (Yeongsan River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kang, Tae-Woo (Yeongsan River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Young-Suk (Yeongsan River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Jihyun (Yeongsan River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kang, Taegu (Yeongsan River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research)
  • 송상환 (국립환경과학원 영산강물환경연구소) ;
  • 박종환 (국립환경과학원 영산강물환경연구소) ;
  • 강태우 (국립환경과학원 영산강물환경연구소) ;
  • 김영석 (국립환경과학원 영산강물환경연구소) ;
  • 김지현 (국립환경과학원 영산강물환경연구소) ;
  • 강태구 (국립환경과학원 영산강물환경연구소)
  • Received : 2016.11.15
  • Accepted : 2017.02.22
  • Published : 2017.03.30

Abstract

With the need to evaluate accuracy of real-time measurement of cyanobacterial fluorescence to determine cyanobacterial blooms, this research examined 357 paired data (2013-2016) comprising both microscopic toxic cyanobacterial cell counts and concurrent real-time cyanobacterial concentrations at 2 sites (YS1 and YS2) in Yeongsan river. The increase in real-time cyanobacterial concentration was closely associated with the exceedance of 5,000 cyanobacterial cells/ml (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.12) and 10,000 cells/ml (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04-1.12) at YS2 site. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the real-time cyanobacterial measurement at the YS2 site was 0.93, which indicates the measurement provides a high accurate detection of cyanobacterial blooms. On the ROC curve, the early alert levels of real-time cyanobacteria ranging $16-23{\mu}g$ chl-a/L would produce acceptable sensitivity of 79% and specificities greater than 90%. The real-time fluorescence measurement was found to be an accurate indicator of cyanobacteria and can serve as a tool for detecting toxic cyanobacterial bloom events in Youngsan river.

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