Definition and measurement of S-curve based technological discontinuity : case of technological substitution of logic semiconductors

S곡선 기반 기술적 불연속성(Technological discontinuity)의 정의 및 측정 : 로직 반도체의 기술대체 사례

  • Park, Changhyun (Office of R&D Budget and Feasibility Analysis, KISTEP(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning))
  • 박창현 (한국과학기술기획평가원 재정투자분석본부)
  • Received : 2017.05.01
  • Accepted : 2017.07.07
  • Published : 2017.07.31


The phenomenon of technological discontinuity which occurs during technological diffusion and substitution between incumbents and new technology is important to understand the behavior of technology diffusion and substitution of single and multiple technologies. Our research defined the concept of technological discontinuity and developed a model capable of measuring the region of technological discontinuity. Based on a literature review and a model development, we proposed a definition and a model regarding technological discontinuity.The accuracy of the model is verified by applying it on a semiconductor industry case. The technological discontinuity is defined as the region in which both the incumbent and new technology co-exist and the performance of the incumbent technology is better than that of the new technology. In addition, we can model the technological discontinuity using discontinuous time and discontinuous performance. This research will be very useful to understand not only technological discontinuity but also technology diffusion or substitution.


Technological discontinuity;Discontinuous time;Discontinuous performance;Diffusion;Substitution


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