Analysis of Influencing Factors of Cyber Weapon System Core Technology Realization Period

사이버 무기체계 핵심기술 실현시기의 영향 요인 분석

  • Lee, Ho-gyun (Defense Agency for Technology and Quality) ;
  • Lim, Jong-in (Graduate School of Information Security, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Kyung-ho (Graduate School of Information Security, Korea University)
  • Received : 2017.03.09
  • Accepted : 2017.04.11
  • Published : 2017.04.30


It is demanded to promote research and development of cyber weapons system and core technology in response to the ongoing cyber attack of North Korea. In this paper, core technologies of the future cyber weapon system are developed and the factors affecting the realization timing of core technologies were analyzed. 9 core technology groups and 36 core technologies are derived. Afterwards, these core technology groups are compared to the operation phase of the joint cyber warfare guideline and the cyber kill chain of Lockheed Martin. As a result of the comparison, it is confirmed that the core technology groups cover all phases of the aforementioned tactics. The results of regression analyses performed on the degree of influence by each factor regarding the moment of core technology realization show that the moment of core technology realization approaches more quickly as factors such as technology level of the most advanced country, technology level of South Korea, technology transfer possibility from the military sector to the non-military sector(spin-off factor), and technology transfer possibility from the non-military sector to the military sector(spin-on factor) increase. On the contrary, the moment of core technology realization is delayed as the degree at which the advanced countries keep their core technologies from transferring decrease. The results also confirm that the moment of core technology realization is not significantly correlated to the economic ripple effect factor. This study is meaningful in that it extract core technologies of cyber weapon system in accordance with revision of force development directive and join cyber warfare guideline, which incorporated cyber weapon system into formal weapon system. Furthermore, the study is significant because it indicates the influential factor of the moment of core technology realization.

지속적인 북한의 사이버 공격에 대응해서 사이버 무기체계와 핵심기술의 연구개발 추진을 요구받고 있는 상황이다. 본 논문은 사이버 무기체계에 소요되는 핵심기술을 도출하고, 도출된 핵심기술들의 실현시기에 대한 영향 요인을 분석하였다. 9개의 핵심기술군, 36개의 핵심기술이 도출되었으며, 도출된 핵심기술군을 합동사이버작전교범의 작전단계와 록히드마틴의 사이버 킬체인과 비교해 본 결과, 누락된 요소가 없이 매핑되고 있음을 확인하였다. 핵심기술의 실현시기에 대한 각 요인별 영향도를 회귀분석한 결과, 핵심기술의 실현시기는 최고선진국 기술수준, 한국 기술수준, 국방에서 민간으로의 기술이전 가능성, 민간에서 국방으로의 기술이전 가능성이 높을수록 더 빨라지고, 선진국의 기술이전 기피도가 높을수록 더 늦어지며, 경제적 파급효과와는 유의미한 상관관계가 없는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구는 사이버무기 체계를 정식 무기체계로 편입시킨 전력발전훈령 개정 및 합참사이버작전교범 제정에 맞춰 사이버 무기체계의 핵심기술을 도출하고 핵심기술 실현시기의 영향 요인을 확인한 것에 의의가 있다.


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