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Forecasting of Container Cargo Volumes of China using System Dynamics

System dynamics를 이용한 중국 컨테이너 물동량 예측에 관한 연구

  • Kim, Hyung-Ho (Dept. of Information & Logistics, Sehan University) ;
  • Jeon, Jun-woo (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University) ;
  • Yeo, Gi-Tae (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University)
  • 김형호 (세한대학교 정보물류학과) ;
  • 전준우 (인천대학교 동북아 물류대학원) ;
  • 여기태 (인천대학교 동북아 물류대학원)
  • Received : 2017.02.02
  • Accepted : 2017.03.20
  • Published : 2017.03.28

Abstract

Forecasting container cargo volumes is very important factor for port related organizations in inversting in the recent port management. Especially forcasting of domestic and foreign container volume is necessary because adjacent nations are competing each other to handle more container cargoes. Exact forecasting is essential elements for national port policy, however there is still some difficulty in developing the predictive model. In this respect, the purpose of this study is to develop and suggest the forecasting model of container cargo volumes of China using System Dynamics (SD). The monthly data collected from Clarkson's Shipping Intelligence Network from year 2004 to 2015 during 12 years are used in the model. The accuracy of the model was tested by comparisons between actual container cargo volumes and forecasted corgo volumes suggested by the research model. The MAPE values are calcualted as 6.21% for imported cargo volumes and 7.68% for exported cargo volumes respectively. Less than 10% of MAPE value means that the suggested model is very accurate.

Keywords

China;Container cargo volume;Forecasting container cargo;System dynamics;Simulation

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 세한대학교

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