DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimation of Peak Water Level Based on Observed Records and Assessment of Inundation in Coastal Area - A Case Study in Haeundae, Busan City -

관측자료에 기반한 미래 해수위 예측 및 연안지역 침수위험면적 분석 - 부산시 해운대구 일대를 대상으로 -

  • Received : 2017.10.24
  • Accepted : 2017.12.11
  • Published : 2017.12.31

Abstract

For impact assessment of inundation in coastal area due to sea level rise (SLR), model for estimating future peak water level was constructed using observed mean sea level (MSL), storm surge level (SSL) data and calculated tide level (TL) data. Based on time series analysis and quadratic polynomial model for SLR and Monte-Carlo simulation for IC, SSL and TL, 100-year return peak water level is expected to be 2.3, 2.6, 2.8m, respectively (each corresponding to year 2050, 2080, 2100). Further analysis on future potential inundation area showed U-dong, Yongho-dong, Songjeong-dong, Jaesong-dong to be at high risk.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 환경부

References

  1. Abadie LM, Galarraga I, Murieta ES. 2017. Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability. high-impact coastal events in cities. Environmental Research Letters. 120-014017.
  2. Campbell SD, Diebold FX. 2005. Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 100(469): 6-16. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214504000001051
  3. Cho KW. 2002. Sea-level trend at the Korean coast. Journal of Environment Science. 11(11): 1141-1147. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.5322/JES.2002.11.11.1141
  4. Church JA et al. 2013. Sea level change. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge. United Kingdom and New York. NY. USA: Cambridge University Press.
  5. Foster G, Brown PT. 2015. Time and tide: analysis of sea level time series. Climate Dynamics. 45: 291-308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2224-3
  6. Kim DY, Park SH, Woo SB, Jeong KY, Lee EI. 2017. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge around the Southeastern Coast of Korea. Journal of Coastal Research. SI(79): 239-243.
  7. Kim KY, Kim YJ. 2017. A comparison of sea level projections based on the observed and reconstructed sea level data around the Korean Peninsula. Climatic Change. 142(1-2): 23-36. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1901-8
  8. KOSIS (KOrean Statistical Information Service). 2017. Domestic Statistics. [Korean Literature]
  9. Kwon HH, Uranchimeg S, Kim YT. 2016. Estimating the Accelerated Sea Level Rise along the Korean Peninsula Using Multiscale Analysis. Journal of Coastal Research. SI(75): 770-774.
  10. Lee SY, Choi JM. 2011. Analysis for Economic Cost of Sea Level Rise Case Study: Haeundae Gu, Busan. Korean Geographical Society. 46(5): 597-607. [Korean Literature]
  11. Liu X, Zhang Z, Peterson J, Chandra S. 2007. LiDAR-Derived High Quality Ground Control Information and DEM for Image Orthorectification. GeoInformatica. 11(1):37-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10707-006-0005-9
  12. MATLAB 2017a. The MathWorks Inc, Natick. 2017.
  13. National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington: Past, Present and Future. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13389.
  14. Oh NS. 2005. Sea Level Rise at the South Western Coast of Korean Peninsula. International Journal of Navigation and Port Research. 29(4): 327-333. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2005.29.4.327
  15. Park SJ, Lee DK, Sung SY, Jung TY. 2014. Risk Assessment of Potential Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise Using Bayesian Network. Korea Planning Association. 49(2): 347-358. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.17208/jkpa.2014.04.49.2.347
  16. Prahl BF, Rybski D, Boettle M, Kropp JP. 2016. Damage functions for climate-related hazards: Unification and uncertainty analysis. Natural Hazards Earth System Science. 16(5): 1189-1203. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1189-2016
  17. PSMSL. 2013. Permanent service for mean sea level data. http://www.psmsl.org/data/ obtaining.
  18. Youn YH, Oh IS, Park YH, Kim KH. 2004. Climate variabilities of sea level around the Korean Peninsula. Advanced Atmosphere Science. 21(4): 617-626. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915729