Overall risk analysis of shield TBM tunnelling using Bayesian Networks (BN) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

베이지안 네트워크와 AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)를 활용한 쉴드 TBM 터널 리스크 분석

  • Park, Jeongjun (Korea Railroad Research Institute, Advanced Infrastructure Research Team) ;
  • Chung, Heeyoung (Korea University, School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering) ;
  • Moon, Joon-Bai (DONGAH Geological Engineering Co., Ltd) ;
  • Choi, Hangseok (Korea University, School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering) ;
  • Lee, In-Mo (Korea University, School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering)
  • 박정준 (한국철도기술연구원 첨단인프라연구팀) ;
  • 정희영 (고려대학교 건축사회환경공학부) ;
  • 문준배 ((주)동아지질 터널사업부) ;
  • 최항석 (고려대학교 건축사회환경공학부) ;
  • 이인모 (고려대학교 건축사회환경공학부)
  • Received : 2016.08.30
  • Accepted : 2016.09.21
  • Published : 2016.09.30


Overall risks that can occur in a shield TBM tunnelling are studied in this paper. Both the potential risk events that may occur during tunnel construction and their causes are identified, and the causal relationship between causes and events is obtained in a systematic way. Risk impact analysis is performed for the potential risk events and ways to mitigate the risks are summarized. Literature surveys as well as interviews with experts were made for this purpose. The potential risk events are classified into eight categories: cuttability reduction, collapse of a tunnel face, ground surface settlement and upheaval, spurts of slurry on the ground, incapability of mucking and excavation, and water leakage. The causes of these risks are categorized into three areas: geological, design and construction management factors. Bayesian Networks (BN) were established to systematically assess a causal relationship between causes and events. The risk impact analysis was performed to evaluate a risk response level by adopting an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the consideration of the downtime and cost of measures. Based on the result of the risk impact analysis, the risk events are divided into four risk response levels and these levels are verified by comparing with the actual occurrences of risk events. Measures to mitigate the potential risk events during the design and/or construction stages are also proposed. Result of this research will be of the help to the designers and contractors of TBM tunnelling projects in identifying the potential risks and for preparing a systematic risk management through the evaluation of the risk response level and the migration methods in the design and construction stage.


Grant : 고수압 초장대 해저터널 기술자립을 위한 핵심요소 기술 개발, BIM기반 철도인프라 관리 표준기술 개발

Supported by : 국토교통부


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