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An Analysis of Ex-post Evaluation on Korea-EU FTA with respect to the Agricultural Sector

한·EU FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가

  • Received : 2016.04.27
  • Accepted : 2016.07.07
  • Published : 2016.07.31

Abstract

As the FTAs' implementations are accelerated, an Ex-post assessment, such as an analysis of the tariff schedule and agricultural trade has been emerging as an important national issue for an agricultural sector Korea-EU FTA, which was to be implemented in the five years from July 2016 as one of the giant FTA. The purpose of this study was to determine the demand of an ex-post assessment on agricultural sector as a trade negotiation procedural law. In addition, by providing policy direction for the agricultural policy part requiring amendments and supplements through ex-post assessment, the conflicting arguments between agricultural and non-agricultural sector can be evaluated more objectively. The current evaluation method on the economic impact ex-post assessment of a FTA is generally compared using the change in trade balance before and after the time of FTA implementation. On the other hand, this comparison cannot be said to be the pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA in all combined situations, such as the effects of exchange rates and international macroeconomic changes and climate change & occurrence of pests. Over the last 4 years, however, Korea-EU FTA's total accumulated agricultural GDP loss was measured to be 2,178 billion by these research attempts with dynamic analysis as ex-post assessment methodology. The greatest impact was mainly livestock and pork followed by cereals and vegetables. In addition, this research is expected to contribute to policy evaluations in the future.

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