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Forecasting Brown Planthopper Infestation in Korea using Statistical Models based on Climatic tele-connections

기후 원격상관 기반 통계모형을 활용한 국내 벼멸구 발생 예측

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Cho, Jeapil (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Lee, Yong-Hwan (Disaster Management Division, Rural Development Administration)
  • Received : 2016.04.04
  • Accepted : 2016.05.12
  • Published : 2016.06.01

Abstract

A seasonal outlook for crop insect pests is most valuable when it provides accurate information for timely management decisions. In this study, we investigated probable tele-connections between climatic phenomena and pest infestations in Korea using a statistical method. A rice insect pest, brown planthopper (BPH), was selected because of its migration characteristics, which fits well with the concept of our statistical modelling - utilizing a long-term, multi-regional influence of selected climatic phenomena to predict a dominant biological event at certain time and place. Variables of the seasonal climate forecast from 10 climate models were used as a predictor, and annual infestation area for BPH as a predictand in the statistical analyses. The Moving Window Regression model showed high correlation between the national infestation trends of BPH in South Korea and selected tempo-spatial climatic variables along with its sequential migration path. Overall, the statistical models developed in this study showed a promising predictability for BPH infestation in Korea, although the dynamical relationships between the infestation and selected climatic phenomena need to be further elucidated.

Keywords

Seasonal outlook;Brown planthopper;Moving window regression;Statistical model

Acknowledgement

Supported by : APEC 기후센터

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