Assessing Breast Cancer Risk among Iranian Women Using the Gail Model

  • Khazaee-Pool, Maryam (Department of Health Education and Promotion, School of Health, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Majlessi, Fereshteh (School of Public Health, Knowledge Utilization Research Center) ;
  • Nedjat, Saharnaz (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Montazeri, Ali (Mental Health Research Group, Health Metrics Research Center, Institute for Health Sciences Research, ACECR) ;
  • Janani, leila (Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Pashaei, Tahereh (Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences)
  • Published : 2016.08.01


Background: Breast cancer risk assessment is a helpful method for estimating development of breast cancer at the population level. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, participants consisted of a group of 3,847 volunteers ($mean{\pm}SD$ age: $463{\pm}7.59$ years) in a convenience sample of women referred to health centers affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Sciences in Tehran, Iran. The risk of breast cancer was estimated by applying the National Cancer Institute's online version of the Gail Risk Assessment Tool. Results: Some 24.9% of women reported having one first-degree female relative with breast cancer, with 8.05% of them having two or more first-degree relatives with breast cancer. The mean five-year risk of breast cancer for all participants was $1.61{\pm}0.73%$, and 9.36% of them had a five-year risk of breast cancer >1.66%. The mean lifetime risk of breast cancer was $11.7{\pm}3.91%$. Conclusions: The Gail model is useful for assessing probability of breast cancer in Iranian women. Based on the their breast cancer risk, women may decide to accept further screening services.


Supported by : Tehran University of medical sciences


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