Past Trends and Future Estimation of Annual Breast Cancer Incidence in Osaka, Japan

  • Toyoda, Yasuhiro (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital) ;
  • Tabuchi, Takahiro (Department of Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases) ;
  • Nakayama, Tomio (Department of Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases) ;
  • Hojo, Shigeyuki (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital) ;
  • Yoshioka, Setsuko (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital) ;
  • Maeura, Yoshiichi (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital)
  • Published : 2016.06.01

Abstract

Background: Although the breast cancer incidence rate in Japan is lower than in western countries, the age-specific rates have markedly increased in recent years, along with the problems of declining birth rate and an aging population. Materials and Methods: We examined past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence using data from the Osaka Cancer Registry from 1976 to 2010, and estimated future trends until 2025 based on the changes observed and population dynamics using a log linear regression model. Results: The age-specific breast cancer incidence rate has increased consistently from the 1970s, and the rates have caught up with those of Japanese-Americans in the US. Assuming the increasing tendency of age-specific breast cancer incidence to be constant, the average annual incidence of breast cancer will increase 1.7-fold from 2006-2010 to 2021-2025. Furthermore, the number of patients aged 80 years should increase 3.4-fold. Conclusions: The medical demand for breast cancer care in Japan may increase explosively in the future, particularly among the elderly. We need to prepare for such a future increase in demand for care, although careful monitoring is needed to confirm these results.

Keywords

Breast cancer incidence;future trends;age-specific incidence;Japanese;Japanese-Americans

Acknowledgement

Supported by : Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology

References

  1. Ahmed S, Sami S, Xiang J (2015). HER2-directed therapy: current treatment option for HER2-positive breast cancer. Breast Cancer, 22, 101-16 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12282-015-0587-x
  2. Bray F, McCarron P, Parkin DM (2004). The changing global patterns of female breast cancer incidence and mortality. Breast Cancer Res, 6, 229-39 https://doi.org/10.1186/bcr932
  3. Curado M, Edwards B, Shin H (2007). Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Vol. IX. Lyon: International Agency for Res Cancer.
  4. Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group (EBCTCG) (2005). Effects of chemotherapy and hormonal therapy for early breast cancer on recurrence and 15-year survival: an overview of the randomised trials. Lancet, 365,1687-717 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66544-0
  5. Egusa G, Yamane K (2004). Lifestyle, serum lipids and coronary artery disease: comparision of japan with united states. J Atheroscler Thromb, 11, 304-12. https://doi.org/10.5551/jat.11.304
  6. Green J, Cairns BJ, Casabonne D, et al (2011). Height and cancer incidence in the million women study: prospective cohort and meta-analysis of prospective studies of height and total cancer risk. Lancet Oncol, 12, 785-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(11)70154-1
  7. International Agency for Research on Cancer (2012). Estimated Cancer Incidence, Mortality and prevalence Worldwide in 2012, online analysis. retrieved from URL: http://globocan.iarc.fr/Pages/online.aspx
  8. Ishida T, Suzuki A, Kawai M, et al. (2014) A randomized controlled trial to verify the efficacy of the use of ultrasonography in breast cancer screening aged 40-49(J-START): 76196 women registered. Jpn J Clin Oncol, 44, 134-40 https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hyt199
  9. ItoY, Ioka A, Nakayama T, et al (2011). Comparison of trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Osaka, Japan, using and age-period-cohort model. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 12, 879-88
  10. Kawai M, Kakugawa Y, Nishino Y, et al (2012). Reproductive factors and breast cancer risk in relation to hormone receptor and menopausal status in Japanese women. Cancer Sci, 103, 1861-70 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1349-7006.2012.02379.x
  11. Kawai M, Minami Y, Kuriyama S, et al (2010). Reproductive factors, exogenous female hormone use and breast cancer risk in Japanese: the Miyagi Cohort Study. Cancer Causes Control, 21, 135-45 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-009-9443-7
  12. Katanoda K, Hori M, Matsuda T, et al (2015). An updated report on the trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan, 1958-2013. Jp J Cli Oncol, 45, 390-401 https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hyv002
  13. Matsuda A, Matsuda T, Shibata A, et al (2013). Cancer Incidence and Incidence Rates in Japan in 2008: A Study of 25 Population-based Cancer Registries for the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan (MCIJ) Project. Jap J Clin Oncol, 44, 388-96.
  14. Matsuno RK, Anderson WF, Yamamoto S, et al (2007). Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, 16, 1437-42 https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-07-0108
  15. Minami Y, Tsubono Y, Nishino Y, et al (2004). The increase of female breast cancer in Japan: Emergence of birth cohort effect. Int J Cancer, 108, 901-6. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.11661
  16. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2013). Vital and health statistics division, statistics and information department, minister's secretariat. death table 7; Vital Statistics 2013. retrieved from URL: http://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/kakutei13/dl/11_h7.pdf (in Japanese)
  17. Muramatsu N, Akiyama H (2011). Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future. Gerontologist, 51, 425-32 https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gnr067
  18. Nagata C, Mizoue T, Tanaka K, et al (2006). Research Group for the Development and Evaluation of Cancer Prevention Strategies in Japan. Tobacco smoking and breast cancer risk: an evaluation based on a systematic review of epidemiological evidence among the Japanese population. Jpn J Clin Oncol, 36, 387-94 https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hyl031
  19. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2015). Estimated future population in Japan. retrieved from URL: http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/Mainmenu.asp
  20. Ohuchi N, Ishida T, Kawai M, et al (2011). Randomized controlled trial on effectiveness of ultrasonography screening for breast cancer in women aged 40-49 (J-START): research design. Jpn J Clin Oncol, 41, 275-77 https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hyq214
  21. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2013), Screening, survival and mortality for breast cancer. Health at a Glance 2013: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, 2013, 126-7. retrieved from URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/health_glance-2013-en https://doi.org/10.1787/health_glance-2013-en
  22. Smart CR, Hendrick RE, Rutledge JH 3rd, et al (1995). Benefit of mammography screening in women ages 40 to 49 years. Current evidence from randomized controlled trials. Cancer, 75, 1619-26 https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0142(19950401)75:7<1619::AID-CNCR2820750711>3.0.CO;2-T
  23. Smith RA, Duffy SW, Gabe R, et al (2004). The randomized trials of breast cancer screening: what have we learned? Radiol Clin North Am, 42, 793-806 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcl.2004.06.014
  24. Suzuki R, Iwasaki M, Inoue M, et al (2011). Body weight at age 20 years, subsequent weight change and breast cancer risk defined by estrogen and progesterone receptor status the Japan public health center-based prospective study. Int J Cancer, 129, 1214-24 https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.25744
  25. United Nations (2015), Department of economic and social affairs, population division, population estimates and projections section, world population prospects: the 2015 revision. retrieved from URL: http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
  26. Welch GH, Black WC (2010). Overdiagnosis in cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst, 102, 605-13 https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djq099
  27. World Health Organization (2014), Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Vol. IX, online analysis, retrieved from URL: http://ci5.iarc.fr/CI5I-X/Pages/online.aspx
  28. Yang L, Parkin DM, Li LD et al (2004). Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991-2005. Br J Cancer, 90, 2157-66 https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6601813