Failure Probability Assessment for Risk Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dam under Flood

홍수 시 콘크리트 중력식댐의 위험도 분석을 위한 파괴확률 산정

  • Received : 2016.08.31
  • Accepted : 2016.11.04
  • Published : 2016.12.31


This study aims to estimate the failure probability of concrete gravity dams for their risk analysis under flood situation. To the end, failure modes of concrete gravity dams and their limit state functions are proposed based on numerous review of domestic and international literatures on the dam failure cases and design standards. Three failure modes are proposed: overturning, sliding, and overstress. Based on the failure modes the limit state functions, the failure probability is assessed for a weir section and a non-weir section of a dam in Korea. As water level is rising from operational condition to extreme flood condition, the failure probability is found to be raised up to the warning condition, especially for overturning mode at the non-weir section. The result can be used to reduce the risk of the dam by random environmental variables under possible flood situation.


concrete gravity dam;failure probability analysis;risk analysis;flood


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Supported by : 국토교통과학기술진흥원