DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

An Analysis on the Climate Change Exposure of Fisheries and Fish Species in the Southern Sea under the RCP Scenarios: Focused on Sea Temperature Variation

RCP 시나리오에 따른 남해안 어업 및 어종의 기후변화 노출 분석 : 수온 변동을 대상으로

  • Received : 2016.11.08
  • Accepted : 2016.11.25
  • Published : 2016.12.31

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the climate change exposure of fisheries and fish species in the southern sea of Korea under the RCP climate change scenarios. The extent of exposure was calculated through weighted sum of the sea temperature forecasted by National Institute of Fisheries Science, and the weight were obtained from the time-space distribution of each fisheries or species, based on the micro-data for the fishing information reported by each fisherman. Results show that all the exposed sea temperature of RCP8.5 is higher than that of RCP4.5 in year 2100 as well as in near 2030, therefore it is thought to be very important to reduce the GHG emission even in the short term. The extent of exposure was analyzed to be comparatively high especially in the fisheries such as anchovy drag nets and species like cod, anchovy and squid. Meanwhile the method of this study is considered to be excellent to obtain the accurate extent of exposure under RCP scenarios, and therefore it is applicable on assessing the vulnerability of climate change in fisheries.

Keywords

Climate change;Exposure;Sea temperature;RCP scenarios;Fisheries

References

  1. 관계부처합동 (2015), 제2차 국가기후변화적응대책(2016-2020).
  2. 관계부처합동 (2016), 제2차 국가기후변화적응대책(2016-2020) 세부시행계획.
  3. 국립수산과학원 (2016), 기후변화가 수중생태계 구조에 미치는 영향 및 예측기술 개발, 2015년도 국립수산과학원 사업보고서.
  4. 김봉태.엄기혁.이준수.박혜진.육근형 (2015), "공간패널모형을 이용한 연안어업 생산량과 기후변화 요소의 관계에 대한 연구", 수산경영론집, 46 (3), 63-72.
  5. 농림수산식품부 (2012), 어선어업 10대품목 생산모니터링 기초자료.
  6. 농림축산식품부 (2015), 농림수산식품 기후변화 영향 분석 및 영향평가 모델 구축.
  7. 엄기혁.김홍식.한인성.김도훈 (2015), "기후변화에 따른 한국 연근해 어업생산량 변화 분석", 수산경영론집, 46 (2), 31-41.
  8. 이버들.김봉태.조용성 (2011), "국내 수산 부문의 지역별 기후변화 취약성 평가 연구", 수산경영론집, 42 (1), 57-70.
  9. 국립수산과학원 수산생명자원정보센터 (2011), 생물종정보 , [http://www.nifs.go.kr/frcenter/], 2016년 11월 5일 접속.
  10. Khan, A. H., Levac, E. and Chmura, G. L. (2013), "Future sea surface temperatures in Large Marine Ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic," ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst002. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst002
  11. Shaltout, M. and Omstedt, A. (2014), "Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea," Oceanologia, 56 (3), 411-443. https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.56-3.411
  12. Takao, S., Kumagai, N. H., Yamano, H., Fujii, M. and Yamanaka, Y. (2015), "Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios," Ecology and Evolution, 5 (1), 213-223. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1358
  13. 수협중앙회 어업정보통신본부, 연근해 조업정보 원자료.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국립수산과학원