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Analysis of the Availability of Risk Assessment Model for Typhoon Path which Affected Korean Peninsula

한반도에 영향을 미친 태풍 경로별 재해평가모형의 활용도 분석

  • Park, Jong-Kil (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering/Atmospheric Environment Information Research Center, Inje University) ;
  • Lee, Bo-Ram (Korea Meteorological Industry Promotion Agency) ;
  • Jung, Woo-Sik (Department of Atmospheric Environment Information Engineering/Atmospheric Environment Information Research Center, Inje University)
  • 박종길 (인제대학교 환경공학과/대기환경정보연구센터) ;
  • 이보람 (한국기상산업진흥원) ;
  • 정우식 (인제대학교 대기환경정보공학과/대기환경정보연구센터)
  • Received : 2016.09.09
  • Accepted : 2016.10.20
  • Published : 2016.11.30

Abstract

As a result of dividing typhoon that affected Korean Peninsular between 1999 and 2012 into 7 types of path and entering forecast field and analysis field of RDAPS, until 36 hours from the time of forecast, it is reliable to use the forecast field of RDAPS to predict typhoon and for each typhoon path, the difference between the forecast and the analysis shows normal distribution, which is usable for weather forecast until the $36^{th}$ hour. In the $48^{th}$ hour from the time of forecast, the difference of result depending on each typhoon path increased, which was analyzed to be due to errors in the forecast. It was expected that relatively reasonable results should be shown if the $36^{th}$ hour forecast is used to predict the strength and distribution of strong wind. As a result of using Korean RAM and observing the difference of the maximum damage, reliability was secured up to 36 hours and after 48hours, it was expected that the fluctuation of results may become more severe.

Keywords

RAM;Typhoon type;Forecast field;Analysis field

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 기상청

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