System dynamic modeling and scenario simulation on Beijing industrial carbon emissions

  • Wen, Lei (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University) ;
  • Bai, Lu (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University) ;
  • Zhang, Ernv (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University)
  • Received : 2016.04.01
  • Accepted : 2016.06.29
  • Published : 2016.12.30


Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.


Supported by : Central Universities


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