A new methodology development for flood fragility curve derivation considering structural deterioration for bridges

Lee, Jaebeom;Lee, Young-Joo;Kim, Hyunjun;Sim, Sung-Han;Kim, Jin-Man

  • 투고 : 2015.09.01
  • 심사 : 2015.12.28
  • 발행 : 2016.01.25


Floods have been known to be one of the main causes of bridge collapse. Contrary to earthquakes, flood events tend to occur repeatedly and more frequently in rainfall areas; flood-induced damage and collapse account for a significant portion of disasters in many countries. Nevertheless, in contrast to extensive research on the seismic fragility analysis for civil infrastructure, relatively little attention has been devoted to the flood-related fragility. The present study proposes a novel methodology for deriving flood fragility curves for bridges. Fragility curves are generally derived by means of structural reliability analysis, and structural failure modes are defined as excessive demands of the displacement ductility of a bridge under increased water pressure resulting from debris accumulation and structural deterioration, which are known to be the primary causes of bridge failures during flood events. Since these bridge failure modes need to be analyzed through sophisticated structural analysis, flood fragility curve derivation that would require repeated finite element analyses may take a long time. To calculate the probability of flood-induced failure of bridges efficiently, in the proposed framework, the first order reliability method (FORM) is employed for reducing the required number of finite element analyses. In addition, two software packages specialized for reliability analysis and finite element analysis, FERUM (Finite Element Reliability Using MATLAB) and ABAQUS, are coupled so that they can exchange their inputs and outputs during structural reliability analysis, and a Python-based interface for FERUM and ABAQUS is newly developed to effectively coordinate the fragility analysis. The proposed framework of flood fragility analysis is applied to an actual reinforced concrete bridge in South Korea to demonstrate the detailed procedure of the approach.




  1. AASHTO. (2012), AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications, 6th Ed., Washington, DC.
  2. Caltrans. (2006), Seismic Design Criteria, California DOT: Sacramento, California.
  3. Dawson, R., Hall, J., Sayers, P., Bates, P. and Rosu, C. (2005), "Sampling-based flood risk analysis for fluvial dike systems", Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19(6), 388-402.
  4. Deco, A. and Frangopol, D.M. (2011), "Risk assessment of highway bridges under multiple hazards", J. Risk Res., 14(9), 1057-1089.
  5. Der Kiureghian, A. (2005), First- and second-order reliability methods, Engineering Design Reliability Handbook, (Eds., Nikolaidis, E., Ghiocel, D.M. and Singhal, S.), CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, USA, Chapter 14.
  6. Dong, Y., Frangopol, D.M. and Saydam, D. (2013), "Time‐variant sustainability assessment of seismically vulnerable bridges subjected to multiple hazards", Earthq. Eng. Struct. D., 42(10), 1451-1467.
  7. Ghosn, M., Moses, F. and Wang, J. (2003), Design of highway bridge for extreme events, NCHRP Report 489, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
  8. Haldar, A. Ed. (2006), Recent Developments in Reliability-based Civil Engineering, World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated, Singapore.
  9. Johnson, P.A. (1996), "Uncertainty of hydraulic parameters", J. Hydraul. Eng. - ASCE, 122(2), 112-114.
  10. Johnson, P.A. and Dock, D.A. (1998), "Probabilistic bridge scour estimates", J. Hydraul. Eng. - ASCE, 124(7), 750-754.
  11. Ju, M., Oh, H. and Sun, J.W. (2014), "Simplified reliability estimation for optimum strengthening ratio of 30-year-old double T-beam railway bridge by NSM techniques", Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2014, 734016.
  12. Kang, W.H., Lee, Y.J., Song, J. and Gencturk, B. (2012), "Further development of matrix-based system reliability method and applications to structural systems", Structure and Infrastructure Engineering: Maintenance, Management, Life-cycle Design and Performance, 8(5), 441-457.
  13. Kolisko, J., Hunka, P. and Jung, K. (2012), "A statistical analysis of the modulus of elasticity and compressive strength of concrete C45/55 for pre-stressed precast beams", J. Civil Eng. Architect., 6(11), 1571-1576,
  14. Korea Road & Transportation Association (2010), Korean Highway Bridge Design Specification (KHBDS), Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs of Korea, Seoul (in Korean).
  15. Le Roux, R.C. and Wium, J.A. (2012), "Assessment of the behaviour factor for the seismic design of reinforced concrete structural walls according to SANS 10160-part 4: technical paper", J. South African Inst. Civil Eng., 54(1), 69-80.
  16. Lee, Y.J. and Moon, D.S. (2014), "A new methodology of the development of seismic fragility curves", Smart Struct. Syst., 14(5), 847-867.
  17. Lee, Y.J., Song, J. and Tuegel, E.J. (2008), "Finite element system reliability analysis of a wing torque box", Proceedings of the 10th AIAA Nondeterministic Approaches Conference, April 7-10, Schaumburg, IL., USA.
  18. Lehky, D., Kersner, Z. and Novak, D. (2012), "Determination of statistical material parameters of concrete using fracture test and inverse analysis based on FraMePID-3PB tool", Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Reliable Engineering Computing (REC 2012), Brno, Czech Republic.
  19. Melchers, R.E. (1999), Structural Reliability: Analysis and Prediction, (2nd Ed.), John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, USA.
  20. Schmocker, L. and Hager, W.H. (2011), "Probability of drift blockage at bridge decks", J. Hydraul. Eng. - ASCE, 137(4), 470-479.
  21. Shima, H. and Tamai, S. (1987), "Tension stiffness model under reversed loading including post yield range", International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering, Colloquium, Lisbon, Portugal.
  22. Song, J. (2007), Decision and Risk Analysis, Lecture Notes, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA, Feb. 28.
  23. Sudret, B. and Der Kiureghian, A. (2000), Stochastic finite element methods and reliability, A State-of-the-Art Report, Report No. UCB/SEMM-2000/08, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley.
  24. Thoft-Christensen, P., Jensen, F.M., Middleton, C.R. and Blackmore, A. (1997), "Revised rules for concrete bridges", Safety of Bridges, The Institution of Civil Engineers, Thomas Telford, 175-188.
  25. Vu, K.A.T. and Stewart, M.G. (2000), "Structural reliability of concrete bridges including improved chloride-induced corrosion models", Struct. Saf., 22(4), 313-333.
  26. Wardhana, K. and Hadipriono, F.C. (2003), "Analysis of recent bridge failures in the United States", J. Perform. Constr. Fac., 17(3), 144-150.
  27. Witzany, J. and Cejka, T. (2007), "Reliability and failure resistance of the stone bridge structure of Charles Bridge during floods", J. Civil Eng. Management, 13(3), 227-236.

피인용 문헌

  1. Flood fragility analysis for bridges with multiple failure modes vol.9, pp.3, 2017,


연구 과제 주관 기관 : Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA)