DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

HAZARD ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON-RELATED EXTERNAL EVENTS USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY

  • KIM, YOCHAN (Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI)) ;
  • JANG, SEUNG-CHEOL (Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI)) ;
  • LIM, TAE-JIN (Department of Industrial Information Systems Engineering, Soongsil University)
  • Received : 2014.04.02
  • Accepted : 2014.08.25
  • Published : 2015.02.25

Abstract

Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : National Research Foundation of Korea

References

  1. J.E. Yang, Development of an integrated risk assessment framework for internal/external events and all power modes, Nuclear Engineering and Technology 44 (2012) 459e470. https://doi.org/10.5516/NET.03.2012.706
  2. A. Mosleh, PRA: a perspective on strengths, current limitations, and possible improvements, Nuclear Engineering and Technology 46 (1) (2014) 1e10. https://doi.org/10.5516/NET.03.2014.700
  3. Nuclear Energy Agency Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations, Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of Other External Events Than Earthquake NEA/CSNI/R(2009) 4, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2009, p. 114.
  4. J. Sandberg, G. Thuma, G. Georgescu, Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Non-Seismic External Hazards, Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), Helsinki, Finland, 2009.
  5. K.N. Fleming, On the issue of integrated riskda PRA practitioners perspective, in: Proceedings of the ANS International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis, San Francisco, 2005.
  6. J. Vitazkova, E. Cazzoli, Risk targets in view of Fukushima: facts and myths, in: Proceedings of Nordic PSA Conference e Castle Meeting, Gottrora, Sweden, 2011.
  7. J.E. Yang, Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident: lessons learned and future actions from the risk perspectives, Nuclear Engineering and Technology 46 (2014) 27e38. https://doi.org/10.5516/NET.03.2014.702
  8. J. Beirlant, Y. Goegebeur, J. Segers, J. Teugels, J. Segers, Statistics of Extremes: Theory and Applications, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 2004.
  9. S. Coles, An introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer, London, 2001.
  10. A.M.G. Klein Tank, F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, Guideline on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation, Climate Data and Monitoring. WCDMP-No. 72, WMO-TD No. 1500, Geneva, 2009.
  11. International Atomic Energy Agency, Meteorological and Hydrological Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations Specific Safety Guide, Series No. SSG-18, IAEA, Vienna, 2011.
  12. Atomic Energy Licencing Board, Guideline for Site Evaluation for Nuclear Power Plant LEM/TEK/64, 2011.
  13. E. Gilleland, R.W. Katz, Analyzing Seasonal to Interannual Extreme Weather and Climate Variability with the Extremes Toolkit, 18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 86th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting, vol. 29, KHNP, Korea, 2006.
  14. Y.-T. Chiu, Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines faces long road to recovery, The Lancet 382 (2013) 1691e1692. Elsevier, UK.
  15. Y.T. Chiu, Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines faces long road to recovery, The Lancet 382 (2013) 1691e1692. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62380-6
  16. Y. Mitsuta, T. Fujii, Analysis and synthesis of typhoon wind pattern over Japan, Bulletin of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute 329 (1987) 169e185.
  17. M. Knochenhauer, P. Louko, Guidance for External Events Analysis, SKI Report 02:27, 2003.