DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Clustering Asian and North African Countries According to Trend of Colon and Rectum Cancer Mortality Rates: an Application of Growth Mixture Models

  • Zayeri, Farid (Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Sheidaei, Ali (Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Mansouri, Anita (Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences)
  • Published : 2015.05.18

Abstract

Background: Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death with half a million deaths per year. Incidence and mortality rates have demonstrated notable changes in Asian and African countries during the last few decades. In this study, we first aimed to determine the trend of colorectal cancer mortality rate in each Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) region, and then re-classify them to find more homogenous classes. Materials and Methods: Our study population consisted of 52 countries of Asia and North Africa in six IHME pre-defined regions for both genders and age-standardized groups from 1990 to 2010.We first applied simple growth models for pre-defined IHME regions to estimate the intercepts and slopes of mortality rate trends. Then, we clustered the 52 described countries using the latent growth mixture modeling approach for classifying them based on their colorectal mortality rates over time. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that males and people in high income Asia pacific and East Asia countries were at greater risk of death from colon and rectum cancer. In addition, South Asia region had the lowest rates of mortality due to this cancer. Simple growth modeling showed that majority of IHME regions had decreasing trend in mortality rate of colorectal cancer. However, re-classification these countries based on their mortality trend using the latent growth mixture model resulted in more homogeneous classes according to colorectal mortality trend. Conclusions: In general, our statistical analyses showed that most Asian and North African countries had upward trend in their colorectal cancer mortality. We therefore urge the health policy makers in these countries to evaluate the causes of growing mortality and study the interventional programs of successful countries in managing the consequences of this cancer.

Keywords

Colorectal cancer;mortality rate;growth mixture model;Asia and North Africa

References

  1. Atrkar-Roushan Z, Kazemnejad A, Mansour-Ghanaei F, et al (2013). Trend Analysis Of Gastrointestinal Cancer Incidences In Guilan Province: Comparing Rates Over 15 Years. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 14, 7587-93. https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2013.14.12.7587
  2. Behnampour N, Hajizadeh E, Zayeri F, et al (2014). Modeling of influential predictors of gastric cancer incidence rates in golestan province, North Iran. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 15, 1111-7. https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.3.1111
  3. Boyle P, Leon ME (2002). Epidemiology of colorectal cancer. British Med Bull, 64, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1093/bmb/64.1.1
  4. Center MM, Jemal A, Smith RA, et al (2009). Worldwide variations in colorectal cancer. CA Cancer J Clin, 59, 366-78. https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.20038
  5. Colder CR, Campbell RT, Ruel E, et al (2002). A finite mixture model of growth trajectories of adolescent alcohol use: Predictors and consequences. J Consult Clin Psychol, 70, 976. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.70.4.976
  6. de Kok IM, Wong CS, Chia KS, et al (2008). Gender differences in the trend of colorectal cancer incidence in Singapore, 1968-2002. International J Colorectal Disease, 23, 461-7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00384-007-0421-9
  7. Denton M, Prus S, Walters V (2004). Gender differences in health: a Canadian study of the psychosocial, structural and behavioural determinants of health. Soc Sci Med, 58, 2585-600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2003.09.008
  8. deRoon-Cassini TA, Mancini AD, Rusch MD, et al (2010). Psychopathology and resilience following traumatic injury: a latent growth mixture model analysis. Rehabili Psychol, 55, 1. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0018601
  9. Diggle P, Heagerty P, Liang KY, et al 2002. Analysis of longitudinal data, Oxford University Press.
  10. Duncan SC, Duncan TE, Strycker LA (2006). Alcohol use from ages 9 to 16: A cohort-sequential latent growth model. Drug Alcohol Depen, 81, 71-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2005.06.001
  11. Fitzmaurice GM, Laird NM, Ware JH 2012. Applied longitudinal analysis, John Wiley and Sons.
  12. Herszenyi L, Tulassay Z (2010). Epidemiology of gastrointestinal and liver tumors. Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci, 14, 249-58.
  13. Hock LC (2002). An overview of the cancer control programme in Singapore. Japanese J Clin Oncol, 32, 62-5. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hye133
  14. IHME. 2014. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [Online]. Available: https://www.healthdata.org/.
  15. Janout V, Kollarova H (2001). Epidemiology of colorectal cancer. acta-universitatis palackianae olomucensis facultatis medicae, 5-10.
  16. Jung T, Wickrama K (2008). An introduction to latent class growth analysis and growth mixture modeling. Soc Personal Psychol Compass, 2, 302-17. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-9004.2007.00054.x
  17. Katanoda K, Ajiki W, Matsuda T, et al (2012). Trend analysis of cancer incidence in Japan using data from selected population-based cancer registries. Cancer Science, 103, 360-8. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1349-7006.2011.02145.x
  18. Kono S (2004). Secular trend of colon cancer incidence and mortality in relation to fat and meat intake in Japan. European J Cancer Prev, 13, 127-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2354.2003.00464.x
  19. Koyama Y, Kotake K (1997). Overview of colorectal cancer in Japan. Dise Colon Rectum, 40, 2-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02062013
  20. Lim G, Chow K, Lee H (2012). Singapore cancer trends in the last decade. Singapore Med J, 53, 3-9.
  21. McArdle JJ, Epstein D (1987). Latent growth curves within developmental structural equation models. Child Dev, 58, 110-33. https://doi.org/10.2307/1130295
  22. Merika E, Saif M, Katz A, et al (2010). Colon cancer vaccines: an update. In vivo, 24, 607-28.
  23. Moghimi-Dehkordi B, Safaee A (2012). An overview of colorectal cancer survival rates and prognosis in Asia. World J Gastr Oncol, 4, 71. https://doi.org/10.4251/wjgo.v4.i4.71
  24. Muthen L, Muthen B (2011). Mplus (version 6.12) [computer software] author. los angeles.
  25. Nylund KL, Asparouhov T, Muthen BO (2007). Deciding on the number of classes in latent class analysis and growth mixture modeling: a Monte Carlo simulation study. Structural Equat Model, 14, 535-69. https://doi.org/10.1080/10705510701575396
  26. Pourhoseingholi MA (2012). Increased burden of colorectal cancer in Asia. World J Gastr Oncol, 4, 68. https://doi.org/10.4251/wjgo.v4.i4.68
  27. Reddy B, Engle A, Katsifis S, et al (1989). Biochemical epidemiology of colon cancer: effect of types of dietary fiber on fecal mutagens, acid, and neutral sterols in healthy subjects. Cancer Res, 49, 4629-35.
  28. Ricci-Vitiani L, Lombardi DG, Pilozzi E, et al (2006). Identification and expansion of human colon-cancer-initiating cells. Nature, 445, 111-5.
  29. Siegel R, Naishadham D, Jemal A (2012). Cancer statistics, 2012. CA: cancer J Clin, 62, 10-29. https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.20138
  30. Stewart BW, Wild C 2014. World cancer report 2014, World Health Organizat.
  31. Sung JJ, Lau JY, Goh K, et al (2005). Increasing incidence of colorectal cancer in Asia: implications for screening. lancet oncol, 6, 871-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(05)70422-8
  32. Sung JJ, Lau JY, Young GP, et al (2008). Asia Pacific consensus recommendations for colorectal cancer screening. Gut, 57, 1166-76. https://doi.org/10.1136/gut.2007.146316
  33. Swanson JM, Hinshaw SP, Arnold LE, et al (2007). Secondary evaluations of MTA 36-month outcomes: propensity score and growth mixture model analyses. J Am Acad Child Psy, 46, 1003-14. https://doi.org/10.1097/CHI.0b013e3180686d63
  34. Teo MC, Soo KC (2013). Cancer trends and incidences in Singapore. Japanese J Clin Oncol, 43, 219-24. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hys230
  35. Wang J, Wang X (2012). Structural equation modeling: Applications using Mplus, John Wiley and Sons.
  36. Watson AJ, Collins PD (2011). Colon cancer: a civilization disorder. Digest Dis, 29, 222-8. https://doi.org/10.1159/000323926
  37. Yiu HY, Whittemore AS, Shibata A (2004). Increasing colorectal cancer incidence rates in Japan. Int J cancer, 109, 777-81. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.20030
  38. Zheng ZX, Zheng RS, Zhang SW, et al (2014). Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2010. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 15, 8455-60. https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.19.8455

Cited by

  1. Temporal Epidemiological Assessment of Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in East Kazakhstan, 2004-2013 vol.16, pp.15, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2015.16.15.6413