불확실성을 고려한 미래 잣나무의 서식 적지 분포 예측 - 종 분포 모형과 RCP시나리오를 중심으로 -

Estimating Korean Pine(Pinus koraiensis) Habitat Distribution Considering Climate Change Uncertainty - Using Species Distribution Models and RCP Scenarios -

  • Ahn, Yoonjung (Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Kun (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Ho Gul (Graduate school, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Chan (Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements) ;
  • Kim, Jiyeon (Graduate school, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Jae-uk (Korea Environment Institute)
  • 투고 : 2015.04.13
  • 심사 : 2015.06.19
  • 발행 : 2015.06.30


Climate change will make significant impact on species distribution in forest. Pinus koraiensis which is commonly called as Korean Pine is normally distributed in frigid zones. Climate change which causes severe heat could affect distribution of Korean pine. Therefore, this study predicted the distribution of Korean Pine and the suitable habitat area with consideration on uncertainty by applying climate change scenarios on an ensemble model. First of all, a site index was considered when selecting present and absent points and a stratified method was used to select the points. Secondly, environmental and climate variables were chosen by literature review and then confirmed with experts. Those variables were used as input data of BIOMOD2. Thirdly, the present distribution model was made. The result was validated with ROC. Lastly, RCP scenarios were applied on the models to create the future distribution model. As a results, each individual model shows quite big differences in the results but generally most models and ensemble models estimated that the suitable habitat area would be decreased in midterm future(40s) as well as long term future(90s).


연구 과제번호 : 불확도를 고려한 기후변화 영향 및 적응 경제성 평가 기술개발, 도시생태계 적응.관리기법 및 지원시스템 개발

연구 과제 주관 기관 : 환경부


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