A transmission distribution estimation for real time Ebola virus disease epidemic model

실시간 에볼라 바이러스 전염병 모형의 전염확률분포추정

  • Received : 2014.12.21
  • Accepted : 2015.01.10
  • Published : 2015.01.31


The epidemic is seemed to be extremely difficult for accurate predictions. The new models have been suggested that show quite different results. The basic reproductive number of epidemic for consequent time intervals are estimated based on stochastic processes. In this paper, we proposed a transmission distribution estimation for Ebola virus disease epidemic model. This estimation can be easier to obtain in real time which is useful for informing an appropriate public health response to the outbreak. Finally, we implement our proposed method with data from Guinea Ebola disease outbreak.


Basic reproductive number;branching process;Ebola virus;maximum likelihood estimation;transmission distribution


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Supported by : 전남대학교