A study on the supply-demand analysis and outlook for wood products

목제품 수급분석 및 전망에 관한 연구

  • Lee, Sang-Min (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Bark, Ji-eun (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 이상민 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) ;
  • 박지은 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부)
  • Received : 2015.07.23
  • Accepted : 2015.10.08
  • Published : 2015.10.31


This study aims to update the supply-demand model of wood products(FOSMO-2013) and to forecast mid and long run supply and demand for each products. The subjects of the study include sawnwood, plywood, particle board, fiberboard(MDF), and pulp. The updated partial equilibrium model is composed of supply function, import demand function, demand function, price relation function. The long run outlooks of world prices of wood and wood products are imported from the results of Buongiorno(2012). This study also adopt Buongiorno's scenarios, which includes three scenarios of IPCC(A1B, A2, B2) and the other one with assumption of increasing fuelwood consumption of A1B scenario. The result says that the domestic productions of wood products are expecting to decrease while the imports of them increase even there are some differences among the products as well as scenarios.


Supported by : 한국농촌경제연구원


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