- Volume 12 Issue 6
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A Study on the Disaggregation Method of Time Series Data
시계열 자료의 분할에 관한 사례 연구
- Moon, Sungho (Dept. of Data Management, Busan University of Foreign Studies) ;
- Lee, Jeong-Hyeong (Dept. of MIS, Dong-A University)
- Received : 2013.03.25
- Accepted : 2014.06.20
- Published : 2014.06.28
When we collect marketing data, we can only obtain the bimonthly or quarterly data but the monthly data be available. If we evaluate or predict monthly market condition or establish monthly marketing strategies, we need to disaggregate these bimonthly or quarterly data to the monthly data. In this paper, for bimonthly or quarterly data, we introduce some methods of disaggregation to monthly data. These disaggregation methods include the simple average method, the growth rate method, the weighting method by the judgment of experts, and variable decomposition method using 12 month moving cumulative sum. In this paper, we applied variable decomposition method to disaggregate for bimonthly data of sum of electronics sales in a European country. We, also, introduce how to use this method to predict the future data.
monthly data;bimonthly data;disaggregation;variable decomposition;prediction
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