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A Study on the Prediction of Suitability Change of Forage Crop Italian Ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) using Spatial Distribution Model

공간분포모델을 활용한 사료작물 이탈리안 라이그라스(Lolium multiflorum L.)의 재배적지 변동예측연구

  • Kim, Hyunae (Department of Plant Science, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hyun, Shinwoo (Department of Plant Science, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Kwang Soo (Department of Plant Science, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Seoul National University)
  • 김현애 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 식물생산과학부) ;
  • 현신우 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 식물생산과학부) ;
  • 김광수 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 식물생산과학부)
  • Received : 2014.05.29
  • Accepted : 2014.06.21
  • Published : 2014.06.30

Abstract

Under climate change, it is likely that the suitable area for forage crop cultivation would change in Korea. The potential cultivation areas for italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.), which has been considered one of an important forage crop in Korea, were identified using the EcoCrop model. To minimize the uncertainty associated with future projection under climate change, an ensemble approach was attempted using five climate change scenarios as inputs to the EcoCrop model. Our results indicated that most districts had relatively high suitability, e.g., >80, for italian ryegrass in South Korea. Still, suitability of the crop was considerably low in mountainous areas because it was assumed that a given variety of italian ryegrass had limited cold tolerance. It was predicted that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2050s but decrease in 2080s in a relatively large number of regions due to high temperature. In North Korea, suitability of italian ryegrass was considerably low, e.g., 28 on average. Under climate change, however, it was projected that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2080s. For example, suitability of italian ryegrass was more than 80 in 10 districts out of 14 by 2080s. Because cold tolerance of italian ryegrass varieties has been improved, it would be preferable to optimize parameters of the EcoCrop model for those varieties. In addition, it would be possible to grow italian ryegrass as the second crop following rice in Korea in the future. Thus, it merits further study to identify suitable areas for italian ryegrass cultivation after rice using new varieties of italian ryegrass.

Keywords

Climate change;EcoCrop model;Forage;Italian ryegrass;Suitability

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 농촌진흥청

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