DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A comparison study for accuracy of exit poll based on nonresponse model

무응답모형에 기반한 출구조사의 예측 정확성 비교 연구

  • Received : 2013.11.27
  • Accepted : 2013.12.23
  • Published : 2014.01.31

Abstract

One of the major problems to forecast election, especially based on survey, is nonresponse. We may have different forecasting results depend on method of imputation. Handling nonresponse is more important in a survey about sensitive subject, such as presidential election. In this research, we consider a model based method of nonresponse imputation. A model based imputation method should be constructed based on assumption of nonresponse mechanism and may produce different results according to the nonresponse mechanism. An assumption of the nonresponse mechanism is very important precondition to forecast the accurate results. However, there is no exact way to verify assumption of the nonresponse mechanism. In this paper, we compared the accuracy of prediction and assumption of nonresponse mechanism based on the result of presidential election exit poll. We consider maximum likelihood estimation method based on EM algorithm to handle assumption of the model of nonresponse. We also consider modified within precinct error which Bautista (2007) proposed to compare the predict result.

Keywords

Election prediction;exit poll;nonresponse mechanism

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