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Examining Impact of Weather Factors on Apple Yield

사과생산량에 영향을 미치는 기상요인 분석

  • Received : 2014.07.08
  • Accepted : 2014.09.29
  • Published : 2014.12.30

Abstract

Crops and varieties are mostly affected by temperature, the amount of precipitation, and duration of sunshine. This study aims to identify the weather factors that directly influence to apple yield among the series of daily measured weather variables during growing seasons. In order to identify them, 1) a priori natural scientific knowledge with respect to the growth stage of apples and 2) pure statistical approaches to minimize bias due to the subject selection of variables are considered. Each result estimated by the Panel regression using fixed/random effect models is evaluated through suitability (i.e., Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion) and predictability (i.e., mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage). The Panel data of apple yield and weather factors are collected from fifteen major producing areas of apples from 2006 to 2013 in Korea for the case study. The result shows that variable selection using factor analysis, which is one of the statistical approaches applied in the analysis, increases predictability and suitability most. It may imply that all the weather factors are important to predict apple yield if statistical problems, such as multicollinearity and lower degree of freedom due to too many explanatory variables used in the regression, can be controlled effectively. This may be because whole growth stages, such as germination, florescence, fruit setting, fatting, ripening, coloring, and harvesting, are affected by weather.

Keywords

Apple yield;Correlation analysis;Factor analysis;Panel analysis;Weather factors

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