Annual Loss Probability Estimation of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames(SMRFs) using Seismic Fragility Analysis

지진취약도를 통한 철골모멘트골조의 연간 손실 평가

  • Jun, Saemee (Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon (Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Kim, Hyung-Joon (Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul)
  • 전새미 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과) ;
  • 신동현 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과) ;
  • 김형준 (서울시립대학교 건축공학과)
  • Received : 2014.11.17
  • Accepted : 2014.12.02
  • Published : 2014.12.31


The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.


seismic fragility analysis;seismic performance assessment;seismic hazard curve;annaul loss probability estimation


Grant : 지진재해로 인한 사회.경제적 피해예측 모델 개발

Supported by : 소방방재청


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