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Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario

백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정

  • Lee, Yun-Jung (Creative Human Resource Development Program for IT Convergence, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kim, Su-Do (Research Institute for Social Criticality, Pusan National University) ;
  • Chun, Joonseok (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Woo, Gyun (Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • 이윤정 (부산대학교 IT기반융합산업창의인력양성사업단) ;
  • 김수도 (부산대학교 사회급변현상연구소) ;
  • 천준석 (부산대학교 전자전기컴퓨터공학과) ;
  • 우균 (부산대학교 전자전기컴퓨터공학과)
  • Received : 2013.09.23
  • Accepted : 2013.10.12
  • Published : 2013.10.31

Abstract

The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

Acknowledgement

Grant : 화산재해 피해예측기술개발

Supported by : 소방방재청

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