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An Analysis of Model Bias Tendency in Forecast for the Interaction between Mid-latitude Trough and Movement Speed of Typhoon Sanba

중위도 기압골과 태풍 산바의 이동속도와의 상호작용에 대한 예측에서 모델 바이어스 경향분석

  • Choi, Ki-Seon (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Wongsaming, Prapaporn (Numerical Weather Prediction Division, Weather Forecast Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department) ;
  • Park, Sangwook (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Cha, Yu-Mi (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Lee, Woojeong (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Oh, Imyong (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Shin (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Jeong, Sang-Boo (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Dong-Jin (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Chang, Ki-Ho (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kim, Jiyoung (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Yoon, Wang-Sun (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Lee, Jong-Ho (National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • Received : 2013.07.03
  • Accepted : 2013.08.05
  • Published : 2013.08.30

Abstract

Typhoon Sanba was selected for describing the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS) model bias tendency in forecast for the interaction between mid-latitude trough and movement speed of typhoon. We used the KMA GDAPS analyses and forecasts initiated 00 UTC 15 September 2012 from the historical typhoon record using Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS) and Combined Meteorological Information System-3 (COMIS-3). Sea level pressure fields illustrated a development of the low level mid-latitude cyclogenesis in relation to Jet Maximum at 500 hPa. The study found that after Sanba entered the mid-latitude domain, its movement speed was forecast to be accelerated. Typically, Snaba interacted with mid-latitude westerlies at the front of mid-latitude trough. This event occurred when the Sanba was nearing recurvature at 00 and 06 UTC 17 September. The KMA GDAPS sea level pressure forecasts provided the low level mid-latitude cyclone that was weaker than what it actually analyzed in field. As a result, the mid-latitude circulations affecting on Sanba's movement speed was slower than what the KMA GDAPS actually analyzed in field. It was found that these circulations occurred due to the weak mid-tropospheric jet maximum at the 500 hPa. In conclusion, the KMA GDAPS forecast tends to slow a bias of slow movement speed when Sanba interacted with the mid-latitude trough.

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