Forecasting of Sea-Level Rise using a Semi-Empirical Method

반경험식법을 이용한 미래 해수면 상승 예측

  • 김태윤 (한국환경정책.평가연구원) ;
  • 조광우 (한국환경정책.평가연구원)
  • Received : 2013.01.11
  • Accepted : 2013.02.25
  • Published : 2013.02.28


In this paper, we predicted sea-level rise for RCP 4scenarios(RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). To calculate sea-level rise, a semi-empirical method was used and it needs atmospheric temperature rise for each scenario. According to the results, the sea-level has been rising steadily in all scenarios. By 2050 the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios was within 0.08 m, but its difference was showed more than 0.5 m in 2100. The values of sea-level rise for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5 scenarios are 0.87 m, 1.21 m, 1.02 m, 1.36 m, respectively. In the case of RCP 8.5, the slope of atmospheric temperature rise since 2060 was very steep compared to the other scenarios so that the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios will be much larger after 2100. Estimated by a simple approximation, the maximum difference of sea-level rise can be more than 1.2 m in 2120.


Supported by : 기상청


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